USC vs. Oregon State Odds & Pick: Tuesday’s Betting Value Lies With Trojans
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah White (5), Evan Mobley (4), and Isaiah Mobley (3).
- The USC Trojans and the Oregon State Beavers go to battle in a Pac-12 matchup on Tuesday night.
- USC freshman Evan Mobley has been dominating opponents recently, and the Beavers' defense presents another opportunity for him to keep his streak going.
- Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting guide complete with a pick below.
USC vs. Oregon State Odds
USC goes for its seventh straight win on Tuesday when it travels to Corvallis to take on Oregon State.
The Trojans are starting to find their groove during this six-game win streak, as they’ve pulled off wins on the road over both Arizona and Arizona State.
Five-star freshman Evan Mobley has been dominating opponents, averaging 18.2 points over his last five games. Can USC keep its hot streak going as heavy favorites?
On the other side, It’s been an up and down season for the Beavers, who currently find themselves at 6-5.
They did, however, pull off a one-point upset over Arizona State at home, which was their first win over a team ranked inside the KenPom top 100. Can they pull off a second straight upset against a red-hot USC team?
When USC has the ball
For this USC offense to be effective, it needs to get the ball down low. The Trojans lead the Pac-12 in 2-point percentage, and over 66% of their field goal attempts come from inside the arc.
Those numbers make sense when you have a 7-foot uber-talented freshman in Mobley who averages over 16 points and shoots almost 60% from the floor.
USC runs a “weave” offense that really benefits Mobley and allows him to get the ball just outside the post and go to work in isolation situations. The weave action, as you can see below, makes it very difficult for teams to double him once he gets the ball.
USC Weave Diagonal
Action that they go to a lot to get Evan Mobley a Post Touch pic.twitter.com/8uaoAUKbNg
— Andy Fitzgerald (@_AndyFitzgerald) January 13, 2021
The reason Oregon State is struggling this season is because of its defense. The Beavers rank 202nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and struggle in just about every category. Mainly, though, they haven’t been able to stop anybody inside the arc, as they’re allowing over 55% from 2-point range.
Oregon State is also allowing an offensive rebounding percentage of over 30% to its opponents. USC is third in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounding percentage and is the tallest team in the country, so the Beavers are going to have their hands full on Tuesday night.
When Oregon State has the ball
The Beavers quite literally live and die by the 3. They are attempting 3s on over 41% of their field goal attempts in conference play, but they’re shooting only 33.6% from deep.
The reason they are attempting so many 3s is because of how awful they’re going to the basket. Oregon State is shooting a conference-low 44.8% from 2-point range and only 56% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.
USC has really turned up its defensive pressure during conference play, as the Trojans allow only 0.94 points per possession.
Oregon State’s issues down low are only going to get worse because USC is allowing a league-best 42% from inside the arc and 49.7% at the rim. They also top-10 in the nation in block percentage, so trying to score inside against the Trojans is a death sentence.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The way the Trojans have been playing the past six games, it’s hard to bet against them.
Their dominance in the paint matches up so well against Oregon State that I think the Beavers’ only chance of covering in this game is to shoot the lights out from 3, which I don’t think they’re capable of doing against USC’s defense.
I have the Trojans projected as -12.19 favorites on the road, so I’ll back them at -10.5 or better.
Pick: USC -10.5 or better.