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College Football Bowl Predictions for Week 9: Brett McMurphy’s Projections With Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Predictions for Week 9: Brett McMurphy’s Projections With Projected Spreads article feature image
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Adam Hagy/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia’s Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.

Week 9 College Football Bowl Projections

As we pass the halfway point of the season, it’s time for my bowl projections to — you know — really start projecting. Get serious. No more guesswork. I’ve put away my Magic 8 Ball.

Sure, when a team starts 2-0 it’s easy for me to project them in a New Year’s Six bowl. However, when that team loses four of its next five games, I wonder if it will even become bowl eligible. But enough about Miami.

With only four or five games remaining in the regular season, 27 teams already have reached the magical six-win bowl-eligibility mark. Only two teams — Akron and Charlotte — are mathematically eliminated from winning six games (and Charlotte’s Will Healy was fired Sunday after the 49ers’ seventh bowl-eliminating loss).

Based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings, I can (hopefully) make a more educated projection on which teams reach six wins. Obviously, this is based on the favored team winning every game — which, of course, never happens. But enough about Texas.

Using Wilson’s ratings, I’m projecting there will be 79 bowl-eligible teams to fill 84 bowl spots. That means, five 5-7 teams would need a “bowl waiver” to participate in a bowl. Don’t worry, the NCAA passes out bowl waivers like candy on Halloween — the more, the merrier — so there will be enough teams to play in all 42 bowls.

Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, there have never been more than three losing teams that played in a bowl game in one season. So, we’re on pace to have a record number of losing teams in bowl games. But enough about Iowa.

Based on the bowl system needing five 5-7 teams to fill the openings, I’m currently projecting those teams as Iowa, Kansas, Miami, Michigan State and Texas Tech.

As the bowls get closer, the NCAA will clarify exactly how it will determine the pecking order of 5-7 teams — it will most likely be based on the Academic Progress Rate (APR) rankings.

But until then, here are this week’s projections with Wilson’s projected spreads from his updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    Ohio State

    -2.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -9.5

    Tennessee

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -13

    Clemson


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    Oregon

    Michigan

    -4.5
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Oklahoma State

    -9

    Tulane

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    TCU

    Alabama

    -9
  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Wake Forest

    -4

    Illinois


Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Penn State

    -2.5

    Ole Miss

  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Notre Dame

    -4.5

    South Carolina

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Wisconsin

    Kentucky

    -2
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Eastern Michigan

    Wyoming

    -3.5
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    North Carolina

    Mississippi State

    -2.5
  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Duke

    UCLA

    -12.5
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    Florida State

    -7

    Maryland

  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Kansas State

    USC

    -1.5
  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    NC State

    Texas

    -10
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    -3
  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    Oklahoma

    PK

    Arkansas

    PK
  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Syracuse

    PK

    Washington

    PK
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Baylor

    -2

    Texas A&M

  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    Iowa

    Cincinnati

    -8.5
  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Purdue

    PK

    Texas Tech

    PK
  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Toledo

    PK

    Marshall

    PK
  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    UAB

    Florida

    -5.5
  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Oregon State

    -4.5

    Air Force

  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Michigan State

    -15.5

    Ohio

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    San Jose State

    -3

    Western Kentucky

  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Miami

    PK

    Houston

    PK
  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    South Alabama

    SMU

    -4
  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Middle Tennessee

    Louisiana

    -12.5
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    UTSA

    PK

    Troy

    PK
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    Memphis

    -3

    Coastal Carolina

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Buffalo

    PK

    UNLV

    PK
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Appalachian State

    -4

    Liberty

  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    Stanford

    Kansas

    -3.5
  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    LSU

    PK

    Utah

    PK
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Kent State

    Southern Miss

    -6.5
  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    Boise State

    -3.5
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    San Diego State

    -1

    North Texas

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    Louisville

    -3.5

    East Carolina

  • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Orlando, FL

    UCF

    -5.5

    BYU

  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Nassau, Bahamas

    Rice

    -1

    Miami (OH)

  • TBA Bowl**

    TBD
    TBD

    UTEP

    Fresno State

    -10

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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