College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image
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Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Geroge Takacs (85).

Week 13 College Football Bowl Projections

To quote Monty Python: “And now for something completely different.” (Too young for a Monty Python reference? Google is your friend.)

Last week, my projected College Football Playoff pairings consisted of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Cincinnati. This week? Well, cue Monty Python: now for something completely — completely — different.

Based on Georgia (13-0) winning the SEC in a single-digit win vs. Alabama (11-2), Ohio State (12-1) winning the Big Ten, Cincinnati (13-0) winning the American and Oklahoma State (12-1) winning the Big 12, my CFP projections are: Georgia vs. Alabama and Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State.

Yes, two-loss Alabama would be the pick over undefeated Cincinnati. This is based in part on selection committee chair Gary Barta’s comments last week questioning the Bearcats’ strength of schedule. I believe the committee will only put undefeated Cincinnati in the playoff over Alabama if the Tide lose by double-digits against Georgia.

Entering the final week of the regular season there are 72 bowl eligible teams (82 bowl teams are needed). However, there remain 21 teams that can still reach bowl eligibility — 20 teams are 5-6 and must win this week, while USC (4-6) has games remaining vs. BYU and Cal.

There are four games this week matching 5-6 teams: Florida State at Florida, Maryland at Rutgers, Charlotte at Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic, guaranteeing 76 bowl-eligible teams.

Of the remaining 5-6 teams, 10 of the 13 are underdogs this week — meaning there needs to be several upsets to get enough six-win teams. If not, bowls will have to take some 5-7 teams.

The College Football Playoff pairings will be announced on Dec. 5, along with the remaining bowl lineups.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

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Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

CFP National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Action Spread: Georgia -2.5

CFP Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Action Spread: Georgia -6

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Action Spread: Ohio State -13.5

New Year’s Six Bowls

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Baylor vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Ole Miss -0.5

Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Michigan vs. Utah
Action Spread: Michigan -2.5

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Cincinnati* vs. Michigan State
Action Spread: Cincinnati -4.5

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Pitt
Action Spread: Notre Dame -3


Other Bowls

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Iowa State vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Iowa State -2.5

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -1

Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Pick’em

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -12.5

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Auburn
Action Spread: Auburn -1.5

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Miami vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Miami -2.5

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Minnesota vs. Tennessee
Action Spread: Tennessee -5.5

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -2

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Penn State vs. UCLA
Action Spread: Penn State -0.5

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Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Action Spread: Oklahoma -0.5

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Kansas State
Action Spread: Clemson -5.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia vs. Purdue
Action Spread: Purdue -1.5

Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Boston College vs. SMU
Action Spread: SMU -0.5

SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: NC State vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Arizona State -0.5

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Rutgers vs. West Virginia
Action Spread: West Virginia -10

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Texas Tech vs. South Carolina
Action Spread: Texas Tech -1

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Army vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Toledo -0.5

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Missouri vs. UAB
Action Spread: UAB -3.5

Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Louisville vs. Houston
Action Spread: Houston -0.5

Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Georgia State vs. Kent State
Action Spread: Georgia State -3

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Western Michigan vs. San Jose State
Action Spread: Pick’em

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Utah State vs. UCF
Action Spread: UCF -8.5

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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Florida State vs. Tulsa
Action Spread: Florida State -8

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Air Force vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Air Force -5.5

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Louisiana vs. Nevada
Action Spread: Louisiana -5.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State
Action Spread: Boise State -13

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -8

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Marshall vs. Appalachian State
Action Spread: Appalachian State -8

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Washington State vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: Washington State -2

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. UTSA
Action Spread: BYU -2.5

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Troy vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -9

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Wyoming vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Wyoming -10

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Action Spread: Western Kentucky -10.5

Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Old Dominion vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Old Dominion -1.5

Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Miami (OH)
Action Spread: Miami (OH) -2

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

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