Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 Props I’m Betting

Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 Props I’m Betting article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Pastrnak

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Monday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.

Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey: That’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below. But in the postseason I’ve had success.

Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 62-30-2 (+26.89).

For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

837-618-43, +132.04 Units

    • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 408-304-7, +49.86 Units
  • NHL: 128-110-9, +19.32 Units
  • MLB: 50-56-13, -11.39 Units
  • Golf: 9-13-2, -1.70 Units
  • NASCAR: 12-17-0, -4.42 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units

Game 1: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Betting Odds

  • Sharks: +135
  • Blues: -150
  • Over: 5.0 (-135)
  • Under: 5.0 (+115)
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

St. Louis Blues Player Props

Blues D Alex Pietrangelo: 2.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.5: +120
  • Under 2.5: -160

Full disclosure: Entering the series, I planned to bet a lot of unders on player props, but the early lines I’m seeing are already pretty dang sharp.

And the one player prop I do like for the Blues is an over.

Here’s the thing: I have Pietrangelo projected for 2.43 shots on goal. I naturally lean to the under.

But there’s too much value at +120 not to bet the over.

Pietrangelo doesn’t have a great matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 32.4 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense.

And in general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Finals. We shouldn’t expect to see a lot of shots from the Blues.

But Pietrangelo is the most aggressive of the Blues defensemen, averaging 2.48 shots across his 90 games (including playoffs). And in the postseason he’s been especially active, ranking second on the team with 2.89 shots per game.

I wouldn’t bet the over any lower than +115 — and I really don’t like betting against my projections — but I’ll take value where I can get it.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+120)

Boston Bruins Player Props

Bruins RW David Pastrnak: 2.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.5: -135
  • Under 2.5: +105

Again, I didn’t enter the series planning to bet overs, but we have to take what the market gives us.

Pastrnak doesn’t have a good matchup. The Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, that number has decreased to 28.4. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.

But Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 3.48 shots per game (including playoffs). He’s aggressive. He hasn’t had more than two shots in his past five games, but he’s likely to progress to the mean at some point.

I have Pastrnak projected for 2.98 shots and would bet the over to -145.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

UPDATED: Additional Bruins Player Props

  • Patrice Bergeron under 3.5 shots on goal: -114, bet to -145, projected for 3.00
  • Brad Marchand under 3.0 shots on goal: -115, bet to -125, projected for 2.78
  • Jake DeBrusk under 2.5 shots on goal: -130, bet to -145, projected for 2.07
  • Marcus Johansson under 2.0 shots on goal: -150, bet to -160, projected for 1.39
  • Charlie Coyle under 2.0 shots on goal: -130, bet to -140, projected for 1.61
  • Charlie McAvoy under 2.0 shots on goal: -150, bet to -160, projected for 1.31

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.