Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 7 Props I’m Betting

Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 7 Props I’m Betting article feature image
Credit:

Charlie Coyle was traded from Minnesota to Boston. Credit: Joe Puetz, USA Today Sports.

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Wednesday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.

It all comes down to this: One game, winner take all.

Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final between the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins marks the last chance we have until October to get some action down on NHL player props.

Each day this year, I’ve bet on at least one prop I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 7. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.

Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey. But in the postseason I’ve had success.

Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 97-48-7 (+40.88). For the Stanley Cup Final, I am 35-18-5 (+13.99).

For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

Game 7: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Betting Odds

  • Blues odds: +145
  • Bruins odds: -165
  • Over: 5.5 (+130)
  • Under: 5.5 (-150)
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

Boston Bruins Player Props

Bruins C Patrice Bergeron: 3.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 3.5: -110
  • Under 3.5: -120

In general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Final,  and that’s exactly what I’m doing today with Bruins player props.

In 88 games (including playoffs), Bergeron is second on the team with 3.28 shots on goal per game. He’s an aggressive player.

But he doesn’t have a good matchup. Even though the Bruins have a whopping 71 shots on goal over the past two games, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, they’ve basically been themselves, allowing just 28.7 per game. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.

Bergeron has averaged 3.5 shots per game this series, and in Game 6 he burned us with six shots on goal, but he’s had fewer than 3.5 shots in four of six games in the Stanley Cup Final, and I have him projected for 3.02 tonight.

I’d bet the under to -145.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-120)

Bruins C David Krejci: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -150
  • Under 1.5: +120

I’ve been on the Krejci under for most of the series. I’m not about to stop betting it now.

In his 104 games this year (including playoffs), Krejci has averaged just 1.63 shots per game. Centering the second line, he tends to defer to wings Jake DeBrusk and David Backes when it comes to taking shots.

And with the tough matchup, he’s averaged just 1.33 shots per game for the series.

I have him projected for 1.42 and would bet the under to -105.

The Pick: Under 1.5 (+120)

Bruins LW Marcus Johansson: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -130
  • Under 1.5: +100

Johansson’s over/under was 2.0 for Game 6, but there’s still some value at 1.5.

Like Krejci, Johansson has been an automatic fade for most of the series.

Johansson isn’t much of a shooter. In his 10 regular season games with the Bruins (after joining the team via trade), he had 1.2 shots per game.

In the playoffs, he’s averaged 1.62, but against the Blues he’s done rather little. In the Stanley Cup Final, he’s had fewer than 1.5 shots in five of six games.

I have him projected for 1.36 and would bet the under to -115.

The Pick: Under 1.5 (+100)

Bruins C Charlie Coyle: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -160
  • Under 1.5: +130

Like Johansson, Coyle has seen his over/under drop from 2.0 to 1.5, but even though I have him projected for 1.61 shots, I’m taking the under at plus money.

This series, Coyle’s mean for shots per game is exactly 1.5. So is his median. This prop looks pretty close to a coin toss, and we’re getting great odds to bet on one side.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, the Coyle under has a bet quality of 10 and is our highest-rated player prop.

I’d bet the under to +115.

The Pick: Under 1.5 (+130)

UPDATED: Additional Bruins Player Props

  • Sean Kuraly over 1.5 shots on goal: -145, bet to -150, projected for 2.05

St. Louis Blues Player Props

Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: 2.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.5: +130
  • Under 2.5: -160

Schwartz doesn’t have a favorable matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.5 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense.

And this series, he’s averaged just 1.5 shots on goal. In the six games, he’s had more than 2.5 shots just once.

And I have him projected for only 2.42 shots for Game 7.

But I’m still taking over 2.5 shots at plus money.

Across his 94 games (including postseason) he’s averaged 2.60 shots on goal, and he’s one of the most aggressive shooters on the Blues. I’m expecting progression to the mean and looking for him to take his shots tonight.

I’d bet the over to +115.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+130)

Blues C Brayden Schenn: 2.0 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.0: -105
  • Under 2.0: -125

I’m 2-0 this series on the Schenn under, but now that the line has moved from 2.5 to 2.0 and the odds have shifted, I’m looking at the over.

During the regular season, Schenn averaged 2.21 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, he’s had 2.16.

And in this series, he’s averaged 2.67 shots and had at least two in five of six games.

This prop could easily end in a push, and I have Schenn projected for just 2.10 shots, so it’s not as if I see a ton of value here, but I would bet the over to -110.

The Pick: Over 2.0 (-105)

UPDATED: Additional Blues Player Props

  • Ryan O’Reilly over 2.5 shots on goal: +100, bet to -105, projected for 2.57
  • Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 shots on goal: +100, bet to -105, projected for 2.51
  • Colton Parayko over 2.0 shots on goal: -114, bet to -120, projected for 2.26

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.