Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 3 NHL Player Props I’m Betting
Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alexander Steen.
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Wednesday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 3 of the Blues-Sharks series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 3 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
I should mention that early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m a robust 42-17-2 (+21.59).
Perhaps it’s easier to project ice time and usage in the playoffs. Or maybe I’ve just had a good sense of the matchups we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks. And perhaps I’ve had some luck.
Regardless, I like some of the player props for tonight’s game. For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
781-576-42, +126.67 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 379-282-7, +49.02 Units
- NHL: 108-97-9, +14.02 Units
- MLB: 47-53-12, -11.12 Units
- Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
- Sharks: +123
- Blues: -143
- Over: 5.5 (-105)
- Under: 5.5 (-115)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
San Jose Sharks Player Props
Sharks C Logan Couture: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-125)
The Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has bumped up slightly to 28.7, but the Blues are still one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
In the playoffs, Couture has been aggressive with 3.38 shots per game, and in each of Games 1-2 he had four shots. But in the regular season he averaged just 2.52 per game, and I’m expecting some regression toward the mean.
This could easily end in a push, but I have Couture projected for 2.46 shots and would bet the under to -150.
Sharks LW Evander Kane: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140)
For most of the Sharks, I’m leaning toward the under, but Kane is a shooter. In his 91 games this year (including playoffs), Kane has averaged 3.45 shots per game.
In each of Games 1-2 he had just one attempt, and over his past four games he’s managed just five total shots, but he seems likely to progress to the mean. Kane is too aggressive of a player not to get scoring opportunities at some point.
I have him projected for 3.16 shots and would bet the over to -160.
Sharks C Tomas Hertl: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
Hertl has fired a team-high 3.44 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he averaged a more modest 2.29, and in Games 1-2 combined he had just one attempt.
I expect that Hertl’s postseason volume will continue to regress toward his regular-season average. I have him projected for 2.42 shots, so this bet is close, but I love the under at plus money and would bet it to +110.
Sharks RW Joe Pavelski: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
Pavelski is important to the Sharks, and in his 85 games this year (including playoffs), he’s averaged 2.46 shots per game, so there’s not a lot of wiggle room between the prop and my projection.
But the under is very attractive at plus money, especially considering the tough matchup.
I have Pavelski projected for 2.21 shots and would bet the under to -125.
Sharks C Joe Thornton: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
Thornton is like Hertl: His volume has picked up in the playoffs (1.60 shots per game), but he seems likely to regress toward his regular-season average (1.23).
In each of Games 1-2, Thornton had only one attempt.
I have him projected for 1.13 shots and would bet the under to -145.
Sharks LW Timo Meier: 2.5 Shots on Goal (Arbitrage)
- Over 2.5: -125 (1.3 units)
- Under 2.5: +130 (1.0 unit)
I have Timo projected for 2.76 shots — in his 94 games this year (including playoffs) he’s averaged 3.18 shots per game — so I lean toward the over, but I also think it’s fairly priced at -125.
But there is an arbitrage opportunity available in the market via a +130 under, so I’m strategically betting both sides.
If the under hits, I will break even. If the over hits, I’ll profit 0.04 units. That’s not a lot, but at least I’m getting a free shot at the side I like.
St. Louis Blues Player Props
Blues LW Alexander Steen: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
Based on my projections, there’s not much value on almost all the Blues props, but I do like the Steen under a lot. Playing on the fourth line, he’s simply someone to fade.
In his 80 games this year (including playoffs), he’s managed just 1.55 shots per game — but in the postseason he’s averaged a parsimonious 0.67.
In the playoffs, he’s had fewer than 1.5 shots in 11 of 15 games (73.3%).
I have Steen projected for just 1.12 shots and would bet the under to -135.
In the FantasyLabs NHL Props Tool, the Steen under is our highest-rated prop, offering a bet quality of 10.
Blues D Alex Pietrangelo: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
Pietrangelo is the most aggressive of the Blues defensemen, averaging 2.48 shots across his 86 games (including playoffs). And in the postseason he’s been especially active, ranking second on the team with three shots per game.
But in the regular season he averaged just 2.37, so regression is likely, and he has a tough matchup. In the regular season, the Sharks held opponents to the second-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 30.8 in the postseason, the Sharks are still a team that limits shots with their defense.
In each of Games 1-2, Pietrangelo had two shots.
I have him projected for 2.37 and would bet the under to -110.