Stanley Cup Game 4 Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Bruins vs. Blues
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Blues defenseman Colton Parayko (55) celebrates with teammates Tyler Bozak (21) , Vladimir Tarasenko (91) and Ryan O’Reilly (90)
- Following a 7-2 Bruins win in Game 3, the betting public is expecting more of the same tonight.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal whether or not the sharps agree with casual bettors.
Four power-play goals on four power-play shots proved to be too much for the Blues to handle in Game 3 Saturday night, especially when paired with the three other goals Boston scored in its 7-2 win.
The B’s closed as underdogs, giving their bettors a sweat-free, roughly even-money payout. But following the blowout win, oddsmakers opened tonight’s Game 4 as a true pick’em (-110 apiece).
Boston has been the more popular bet in each game of the series so far, so on the heels of Game 3, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see 66% of bettors happy to ride the Bruins train.
What may be a little surprising, though, is that this line is no longer a pick’em. Despite their slightly embarrassing loss and lack of popularity in the betting market, the Blues are back to -120 (at books with 20-cent juice) — basically the same line at which they closed in Game 3.
Part of the reason for the reverse line movement is that what St. Louis lacks in popularity, it makes up for in the size of its bets. While two-thirds of tickets may be on the Bruins, two-thirds of the actual money that’s been wagered has landed on the Blues.
That creates monetary liability (which can certainly cause line moves on its own), but it also reveals how sharps are attacking this game, as they’re the ones far more likely to be making those big bets.
Sure enough, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals confirm the sharp action on the home side, as they’ve triggered three instances of professional money hitting the Blues, the most recent two of which came at -115.
As for the over/under, it has seen its fair share of sizable bets on one side. Similar to the Blues’ bets vs. dollars discrepancy, the under has generated an impressive 83% of money on just 31% of bets.
No Bet Signals have hit the under — at least not as of Monday morning — but that overload of under money has shifted juice on the under 5.5 from -110 to -140.
With only four MLB games on the docket today, this should see some pretty big numbers as the day rolls along, which means betting percentages could be on the move. What’s clear, though, is that early sharp bettors are looking for a Blues win in a low-scoring game.