UPDATED – Freedman: Hurricanes-Bruins Game 3 NHL Player Props I’m Betting
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Tuesday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes for Game 3 of the Hurricanes-Bruins series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 3 of the Carolina Hurricanes-Boston Bruins series. NOTE: I might update this piece as more lines are released.
I should mention that early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had prop-betting success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m a robust 32-14-2 (+15.06).
Perhaps it’s easier to project ice time and usage in the playoffs. Or maybe I’ve just had a good sense of the matchups we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks. And perhaps I’ve had some luck.
Regardless, I like some of the player props for tonight’s game. For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
765-571-42, +117.26 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 374-280-7, +46.93 Units
- NHL: 98-94-9, +7.49 Units
- MLB: 46-53-12, -11.91 Units
- Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes Betting Odds
- Bruins: -105
- Hurricanes: -115
- Over: 5.5 (+104)
- Under: 5.5 (-116)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
Bruins LW Brad Marchand: Under 3.0 shots (-115)
I’ve had success this series by aggressively betting Boston unders. I’m not about to stop now.
During the regular season, the Hurricanes held opponents to the third-fewest shots on goal per game at 28.6, and in the playoffs they have somehow lowered that mark to 27.6.
The Bruins are an aggressive team and have fired 32.7 shots per game in the playoffs, but the Hurricanes have the type of defensive unit that can limit any team.
In Game 1, the Bruins were held to just 28 shots. In Game 2, a mere 25.
In his 94 games this year (including playoffs), Marchand has averaged 2.98 shots per game, so there’s a decent chance this ends in a push.
But I have him projected for 2.75 shots and would bet the under to -125.
Bruins C Patrice Bergeron: Under 3.5 shots (-115)
Bergeron is second on the team in shots per game, but he still has a mark of just 3.24 this year (including the postseason). Given his matchup, he seems unlikely to surpass his average.
Bergeron has a projected shot total of 2.95, and I’d bet the under to -155.
Bruins RW David Pastrnak: Under 3.5 shots (-130)
Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 3.53 shots per game (including playoffs). He’s aggressive, and early in the regular season, he had a nine-shot game against the Hurricanes.
He has the potential to crush the over.
But in Games 1-2, he had only three shots combined, and I have him projected for just 3.06. I’d bet the under to -145.
Bruins LW Jake DeBrusk: Under 2.5 shots (-105)
DeBrusk is coming off a six-shot performance in Game 2, which I think has inflated his line. He has averaged 3.13 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he had just 2.29, and the matchup is tough.
I’m expecting regression for Debrusk and projecting him for 2.09 shots. I’d bet the under to -145.
Bruins C David Krejci: Under 1.5 shots (+100)
In Games 1-2, Krejci’s line was 2.0 shots, but I still think he offers value.
In the regular season, Krejci averaged 1.72 shots per game, but in the postseason he’s had just 1.4, and against the Carolina defense, I’m doubtful he’ll hit the over.
In Games 1-2 combined, he managed just one attempt.
I wouldn’t bet the under any lower than +100, but I have him projected for 1.44 shots.
Bruins LW Marcus Johansson: Under 2.0 shots (-160)
Johansson isn’t much of a shooter. In his 10 regular season games with the Bruins (after joining the team via trade), he had 1.2 shots per game.
In his 13 playoff games, he has bumped his average up to 1.77, but in the postseason he’s had more than two shots only three times.
I’m projecting him for 1.34 and would bet the under to -170.
Bruins C Charlie Coyle: Under 2.0 shots (-105)
In his 36 games this year (including playoffs), Coyle has 1.92 shots per game. With the tough matchup, he seems unlikely to exceed two shots on goal.
In his 15 playoff games, he’s had more than two shots just thrice. He’s projected for 1.67 shots, and I’d bet the under to -140.
Bruins D Torey Krug: Under 2.0 shots (+110)
In Game 2, this line was 2.5 shots, but I still like the under.
Krug is the most aggressive of the Bruins defensemen, averaging 2.34 shots on goal per game this year (including playoffs). But the matchup is challenging, and he’s had two or fewer shots in 11 of his 15 playoff games (73.3%).
In Games 1-2, he took two shots combined.
I have Krug projected for 2.05, so I wouldn’t bet this any lower than +110, but in the FantasyLabs NHL Props Tool, the Krug under is our highest-rated prop, offering a bet quality of 10.
Hurricanes RW Teuvo Teravainen: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
Although Teravainen has averaged 2.77 shots per game in the postseason, during the regular season he shot fewer than 2.5 in 59 of 82 games (71.95%).
I expect some regression and have him projected for 2.16 shots: In Games 1-2, he averaged two shots per game. I’d bet the under to -135.
Hurricanes C Jordan Staal: Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
In the regular season, Staal fired off two-plus shots in 36 of 50 games (72.0%). In the playoffs, though, he’s averaged just 1.23 shots, and he had only one attempt in each of Games 1-2.
But I anticipate that he will progress toward his regular-season mark of 2.42 and have him projected for 2.10. I’d bet the over to -165.
Hurricanes D Dougie Hamilton: Over 3.0 Shots on Goal (+120)
For Games 1-2, I was able to find this line at 2.5, but there’s still some value to be had at 3.0.
Although he’s a defenseman, Hamilton is a shooter. In his 95 games this year (including postseason), he’s averaged 3.13 shots per game.
And in his five games against the Bruins (including playoffs), he’s averaged 3.4 shots on goal and had at least three attempts four times.
I have Hamilton projected for 2.95, so I wouldn’t bet this any lower than +110, but at plus money, I’ll take the over on what is close to a coin flip and could easily end in a push.
Additional Hurricanes Player Props
- Justin Williams over 2.5 shots on goal: +100, projected for 2.75
- Nino Niederreiter over 2.5 shots on goal: +125, projected for 2.49