3 Tuesday NHL Bets: Are the Panthers Right To Be Favored at MSG vs. Rangers?

Oct 23, 2018 4:06 PM EDT

Betting odds: Florida Panthers at New York Rangers

  • Panthers moneyline: -120
  • Rangers moneyline: +100
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 1 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Neither the Panthers nor the Rangers will play their starting goalie on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. Michael Hutchinson, Florida’s third-string goalie, will give James Reimer a night off, while Alexandar Georgiev will be in the blue paint for the Rangers.

Hutchinson has certainly had his chances to claim a spot as an NHL backup but he’s been below average for the most part. His AHL numbers are pretty strong, but in his last 34 NHL games, he’s posted a .911 5v5 save percentage and -7.42 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average).

Georgiev has 11 NHL games under his belt, and the early returns are about what you’d expect from a 22-year-old trying to establish himself as an NHLer. The Bulgarian owns a .908 SV% and -1.26 GSAA in his short NHL career.

Neither one of these goalies will instill confidence, but a deeper dive reveals an edge worth playing.

Florida is off to a slow start (1-2-3, 5 points) but has a positive 5v5 goal differential and controls 51.7% of the shot share at even strength. The Panthers do a good job of limiting shot attempts (45.1 allowed per 60 minutes at 5v5) and High-Danger Scoring Chances (9.53 per 60 minutes at 5v5).

The Rangers’ biggest strength is creating scoring opportunities. They rank near the top of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 (xGF/60) and High-Danger Scoring Chances for per 60 (HDSC/60).

However, the Blueshirts are porous on defense. They allow an average of 57 shot attempts, 13.57 High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC) and 2.62 expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (score + venue adjusted). This makes sense because the Rangers have one of the worst defenses in the league.

The Panthers have one of the most potent offenses in the league, so Georgiev is going to need to be sharp. It’s pretty easy to see him getting shelled by the Cats.

At the current odds Florida has an implied probability of 54.6%, and that underestimates the Panthers a little bit. They still have a little value around the market, and I’d play them up to -127 (56%).

The Bet: Florida Panthers -120

Betting odds: Arizona Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets

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Credit:

USA Today Sports.

Follow Michael J. Leboff on Twitter
@TheBigLeebowski

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