NHL Betting: Will the Red Wings Ever Win A Game?
Gary A. Vazquez, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Howard
Betting odds: Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens
- Red Wings moneyline: +144
- Canadiens moneyline: -160
- Over/Under: 5.5
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
>> All odds via Pinnacle and current as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets.
The Detroit Red Wings are winless and they were last seen getting their doors blown off by the Boston Bruins on Saturday night. The Canadiens, meanwhile, are off to a decent start and are coming off an overtime win over Pittsburgh this weekend.
So far, the Canadiens pass the sniff test. They currently boast a 56.3 Corsi For% (which accounts for shot attempts for and against at even strength) and average 2.45 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) against 2.03 xGA/60. The Habs haven’t been buoyed by an easy schedule, either, as they have played Toronto, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh twice to start the season.
The slow start from Detroit also looks appropriate when you look under the hood. The Red Wings have a 46.85 CF% and have allowed 14.45 High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes at 5v5.
The Wings also have played a tough schedule out of the gate, but their results leave a lot to be desired, especially in their last two games when they were outscored 13-5.
This all sounds like an argument for the Canadiens, and yes, they are the better team, but that doesn’t mean they are the value side in this game.
Detroit has been bad but it has also been unlucky. The Red Wings have the third-lowest PDO (shooting % + save %) in the NHL, suggesting they have been a tad unlucky. The Canadiens, too, own a low PDO, thanks to a low shooting percentage and average goaltending.
At the current odds, the market suggests the Canadiens win this matchup 61.5% of the time with Detroit getting the two points 40.1% of the time. That definitely flatters Montreal, especially with the goaltending matchup in this game.
Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier aren’t world beaters in goal for Detroit, but they will improve on their combined .889 even-strength save percentage.
The Red Wings have not announced a starter yet, but the Canadiens are rolling with backup goalie Antti Niemi as Carey Price recovers from the flu. Whether Howard or Bernier starts, there’s a slight edge in goal for the Wings, and that should level the playing field a little bit here.
The Canadiens are the better team, but this isn’t a game they win better than 60% of the time. Remember, they came into the season with just slightly better expectations than Detroit. I’m backing the Wings in a buy-low-sell-high spot and hoping for the best.
The Bet: Detroit Red Wings +144
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