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Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/18: Tampa or Chicago, Anyone?

Feb 18, 2019 11:00 AM EST
Credit:

Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Yanni Gourde

Good morning!

After a lackluster Sunday, with no edges greater than 10%, the largest edge of the group losing, and edges 2% or greater vs. the openers going 2-3 overall, we move to Monday’s six-game slate, which brings back two old favorites: Tampa Bay and Chicago.

The reason people like these teams is that they have an uncanny ability to both score and allow buckets of goals in the first period. If you like first-period overs, you’ve likely bet on these teams.

Today, though, one seems to provide value, and the other does not, according to my projections. This sort-of gets at a question you may have been asking periodically: “Is the key to winning just betting Chicago and Tampa’s over, and Dallas’ under, every single game?”

No, and tonight is the example. Chicago’s over opened at a staggering -220 against Ottawa, and although there isn’t a team out there Chicago hasn’t surrendered goals to, Ottawa’s first-period profile is uninspiring.

The Senators score and allow a below-average percentage of their goals in the first period, so the distribution of goals in this game may not be what some are hoping for. That doesn’t mean Chicago can’t just allow two again, it just means that Ottawa isn’t the opponent where you are very likely to see it, and that the price then is (for once) accurately reflecting the probability it happens.

Tampa, on the other hand, gets a lower opening number (-200) and faces a Columbus team with a great first-period profile for scoring. The distribution of goals in THAT game is likely to be different than in Ottawa-Chicago, by my projections.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

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