Blackhawks vs. Red Wings Odds & Pick: Eventually, Detroit Will Beat Chicago (Wednesday, Feb. 17)
Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Larkin.
- The Red Wings look to beat the Blackhawks for the first time this season in their fourth matchup.
- Chicago, according to advanced metrics, have been riding its luck this season, while Detroit's performances have been better than its numbers indicate.
- Matt Russell lays out why he's backing the Red Wings at plus odds on Wednesday.
Blackhawks vs. Red Wings Odds
|Red Wings Odds||+115|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet.|
The plot is easy to follow — stay alive and find answers later. “The Bourne Identity,” “The Bourne Supremacy” and “The Bourne Ultimatum,” all of them, basically the same.
Matt Damon’s titular character, Jason Bourne, doesn’t really know how he knows what to do initially — he just does it. While he works to figure out his identity, he’s just trying to stay upright and breathing, and each time when the show is over, he’s managed to win.
The Blackhawks are Jason Bourneing the NHL right now. The Stars, Blue Jackets and Red Wings have been a sea of Russian operatives, CIA agents gone rogue and general bad guys up to no good. The Hawks have taken their best shot and stealthily avoided defeat, staying alive just long enough to get to a point where they can defy the odds for victory.
The Blackhawks are not a team you want to be going against in 3-on-3 overtime. While the team’s issue is depth at this point in the rebuild, its high-end skill guys are as good as most other teams’, especially in open ice.
There’s a good chance the Blackhawks practice overtime hockey an inordinate amount of time. If that’s the case, it’s working for them. The Blackhawks’ overtime victory on Monday wasn’t just a fourth win in their last five, but their fourth overtime win in that time frame.
For the third time in those four wins, the Blackhawks didn’t win the Expected Goal Share (xG%) at even-strength. Basically the Hawks’ modus operandi is play some “fire wagon” hockey, hope to keep up offensively, get enough saves to force overtime, at which point it’s their time to shine. This is a fair enough strategy to bet on if you’re the underdog, as we’ll always take a team at plus-money into the coin flip territory that is overtime.
In fact, my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model, as heard on “THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast,” rating for the Blackhawks has actually dropped over the course of the last six games. Despite going 5-1 in that stretch, they’ve gone from just over 10% below average at even-strength, to almost 13% below. This is due to their 8.99 xGF 5-on-5, while their opponents have registered 12.44 xG.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings were the latest victim of the Blackhawks overtime excellence. Detroit returned home after a long trip, and played well enough to get a win in regulation. The Wings racked up 10 High-Danger Chances (HDC) at even strength to the Hawks’ five HDC. This is in keeping with the Red Wings recent success 5-on-5. In their last six games, Detroit has 46 HDC to their opponents’ 31.
The Red Wings have stayed at a consistent level in my rating. That level happens to be bang average, but in a matchup with a team that rates below average, naturally means that the Wings should be favored in this game. Of course, they’re not, because they’ve lost their first three matchups this season against the Blackhawks.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Between the Wings’ 2-4 record in their last 6 games, that could just as easily be 4-2, and the Blackhawks’ 5-1 mark when they could have been 2-4, this game remains very much a coin flip, no different than it was on Monday when Chicago won.
The market has adjusted to this, as well, moving the Wings from +120 down to +115 for the rematch.
Even with not quite as much value, I’m willing to take another swing with the Red Wings, and we’ll hope they can avoid overtime this time around.
We’re going to pretend that there wasn’t eventually a fourth Bourne film that followed the trilogy, but with a fourth matchup between the Red Wings and Blackhawks, hopefully heroic Chicago team finally gets cornered before time runs out.
Pick: Red Wings +115 (+110 or better)