Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Jimmy Howard Over/Under 31.5 Total Saves?

Oct 22, 2018 5:21 PM EDT
  • Two NHL prop bets stand out for Monday night's slate, both from the Red Wings-Hurricanes game.
  • See Joe Holka's picks on Jimmy Howard over/under 31.5 total saves and Andreas Athanasiou over/under 3.0 shots on goal.

There are only four games on Monday, but we still have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are two props I’m eyeing tonight in the Carolina Hurricanes-Detroit Red Wings game, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.

Red Wings W Andreas Athanasiou

The pick: Under 3.0 shots (-130)

Athanasiou’s shots have spiked from 2.48 per game over the past year to 3.25 over the past month, but this looks like a prime regression spot for the 24-year-old.

As we talked about extensively on Inside the Lab, Carolina has allowed the second-fewest shots per game (24.9) this season, and the Red Wings have the lowest Corsi for expectation on the slate. This prop looks to be weighing recent production more heavily than it is weighing the matchup, which could be a mistake tonight in a horrific volume-based situation.

Red Wings G Jimmy Howard

The pick: Over 31.5 saves (-115)

In the same game, this prop for Howard looks equally egregious. It’s pretty simple: Detroit is top-10 in shots against (33.5 per game) and Carolina has by far the most shots for (42.1) to start the season.

In models, our proprietary save-prediction metric has Howard projected for (by far) the most saves on Monday’s slate (37.94), which makes sense considering that the Hurricanes own the highest Corsi for expectation by an equally large margin.

Another data point in favor of the over is Carolina has surprisingly scored only 3.25 goals per game this season, which is squarely in the middle of the pack, even though it has unloaded a ton of shots every night.

Follow Joe Holka on Twitter
@JoeHolka

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
DAL
NYI
6
-1.5
5.5
-1.5
NJ
CAR
6
-1.5
6
-1.5
MIN
CHI
--
--
--
--
LV
EDM
5.5
-1.5
5.5
-1.5
COL
ANA
5.5
+1.5
5.5
+1.5