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Jets vs. Flames NHL Odds & Pick: Favored Calgary Should Come Away With Win

Jets vs. Flames NHL Odds & Pick: Favored Calgary Should Come Away With Win article feature image

Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob Markstrom.

  • The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets meet on Tuesday night Calgary.
  • The two teams have met often this season, with Winnipeg holding a 2-1 record over Calgary.
  • The Flames are favored on Tuesday night and Matt Russell argues they have a good chance of coming away with the win.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames Odds

Jets +115
Flames -135
Over/Under 6.0
Time | TV Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday night and via PointsBet.

“I’m getting the better team, with the better goaltender, in the better schedule spot.”

You may have read these words from me last week when writing about this matchup, and if we’re being honest, it didn’t work out well. The Flames lost the rubber match of a three-game set in Winnipeg, and egg was on my face. More relevantly, the Flames had to have been a little embarrassed. 

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Winnipeg Jets

The Jets haven’t played since beating the Flames in two out of three at home. Winning that set completed a long homestand for Winnipeg, which has played just three road games this season. The Jets jump Saskatchewan for just one game, and then head right back home.

It will be Winnipeg’s fifth meeting with the Flames already this season, and the Jets were pretty fortunate to get the five of six points they got out of their battles with Calgary, as the Flames had 34 high-danger chances at even-strength to just 20 for the Jets over the three games. The expected goal share 5-on-5 was in Calgary’s favor as well at 61.3%.

Despite the wins going Winnipeg’s way, these lopsided results have more an affect on my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model. The Jets are still a below-average 5-on-5 team, sitting at -5% of an average team within the division.

Calgary Flames

The Flames are just the opposite, playing 6% above average at even-strength. They didn’t get the weekend off like the Jets, firing up the Battle of Alberta with a 6-4 win over the Oilers. After withstanding a strong first period from Edmonton, the Flames took control in the second and third periods, outscoring the Oilers 5-2.

In the previous preview when these teams met, I wrote about how the Flames had the advantage in goal because of how Connor Hellebuyck and Jacob Markstrom had played early in the season. The Flames’ No. 1 goalie has regressed a little with seven goals given up in his last two games. Meanwhile, Hellebuyck didn’t necessarily steal the last game in Winnipeg, but was certainly the better of the two. 

The limited play of the last week shouldn’t change my general point of view of the two goaltenders, but the metrics have tightened.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Jets may be getting some reinforcements for this game. Two weeks after joining the team via trade, Pierre-Luc Dubois might finally get in the lineup against the Flames. 

Calgary’s had two days off and no travel, so there’s not much of a schedule disadvantage despite the Jets coming in well-rested. My true moneyline in this game is CGY -132/WPG +132, so the number is about right. However, sometimes you want to just pick your side. If my numbers make the Flames the better team, I’m willing to bet that they won’t finish this game 1-4 to Winnipeg this season. 

Pick: Flames (-130 or better)

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