Warriors Playoff Betting Trends to Know: The KD Effect, In-Game Comebacks, Fading Public in Golden State Games, More
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
- The Golden State Warriors are entering their fifth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.
- Using Bet Labs, see how you can profit on the Warriors during the 2019 Finals against the Raptors.
When you accomplish something only Bill Russell did, people tend to start taking notice.
The Warriors are entering their fifth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals, a feat last achieved by the Boston Celtics from 1957-66.
During Golden State’s five-year playoff journey, it is 77-27 (74%) straight up and 57-46-1 (55.3%) against the spread in the playoffs.
If you would have wagered $100 on Golden State in all 100 playoff games, both straight up and against the spread, you would be up $415 off the straight-up wagers and $835 on the spread bets, for a total of $1,250!
If you are looking for a few extra tips to betting the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, let’s dig into the data to find us a few edges…
The 2019 NBA Finals will be the 20th playoff series for the Warriors under Steve Kerr.
With the Warriors win on the road in Toronto in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, the Warriors have now won and covered the spread in at least one road game in 20 consecutive playoff series.
In fact, the Warriors have closed out their past five playoff series on the road, and since their Finals loss to the Cavaliers in 2016, they have closed out eight of their past 11 playoff series on the road, going 19-9-1 ATS away from Oracle Arena in that span.
The KD Effect
Since 2016-17, the Warriors are 35-7 straight up and 25-16-1 against the spread when Steph Curry plays, but Kevin Durant doesn’t. The Warriors have won 32 of their last 36 games overall in this spot.
In the 2019 playoffs, the Warriors have played 134 more minutes with Durant off the floor than with him on. Their Offensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions) is 6.3 points higher with him on the floor, and their effective field goal percentage (adjusts for value of 3-pointers) is over two points higher with him on vs. off.
Never Doubt The Champs
It doesn’t happen often, but the Warriors have played 19 total playoff games when their opponent was receiving the majority spread ticket count (more than 50%).
Pro tip: When the public is betting against the Warriors … bet against the public.
In those 19 games, the Warriors are 18-1 straight up and 15-4 against the spread, covering the spread by 7.3 points per game.
Keep It Moving…
The aspect of the Warriors offense that makes them so deadly: their passing ability. Since 2014-15, the beginning of the Golden State’s Finals run, they have dominated the 30-assist game in the playoffs:
The easiest way to profit on the Warriors’ 30-plus assist games? Under Steve Kerr, Golden State is 24-4 straight up and 18-10 against the spread in the playoffs after a 30-plus assist game. Not only do the Warriors do it better than everyone once, but they follow it up better than any other team, too.
Coming Out Hot At Home
The Warriors have played 12 playoff games at Oracle Arena when they were coming off a straight-up loss in their previous game. Golden State is 11-1 (91.7%) straight up on the first-half moneyline and 10-1-1 (90%) against the first-half spread in those games.
In those 12 first halves after a straight up loss, the Warriors are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 points per game.
In the first three games of the NBA Finals, the Raptors were leading the Warriors at halftime. Toronto held on in Game 1, succumbed to Golden State’s comeback nature in Game 2 and took down the champs in Game 3.
Prior to the 2019 NBA Finals, the previous four times the Warriors trailed by double-digits at the half, they came all the way back to win the game, doing so twice in 2019 against the Blazers and twice at the end of their playoff run against the Rockets last year.
The last 13 times the Warriors have trailed at the half of a playoff game, they are 11-1-1 straight up on the second half moneyline and 8-4-1 against the second half spread.
If You Come At The King…
In the Warriors’ 19 total playoff series under Steve Kerr, they have played 10 Game 6s and 7s. Golden State is 8-2 straight up and against the spread in those games, winning by eight points per game.
In Games 1-5 of a playoff series, the Warriors are 49-44-1 (52.7%) against the spread, covering the spread by under one point per game.