Warriors Game 6, 7 History Creates Opportunity For Bettors in 2019 NBA Finals

Warriors Game 6, 7 History Creates Opportunity For Bettors in 2019 NBA Finals article feature image
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson

  • The Golden State Warriors are 8-2 straight up and against the spread in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series under Steve Kerr.
  • They've trailed a playoff series entering a Game 6 only twice, and came back to win both.

The 2019 NBA Finals against the Toronto Raptors is Golden State’s 20th playoff series under Steve Kerr.

The Warriors have led a series entering Game 6 five times, including twice this postseason. But they’ve entered a Game 6 behind in a series only twice.

So what can we expect from the Warriors in Game 6 against the Toronto Raptors on Thursday night?

Let’s take a look at the past two times the Warriors have entered a Game 6 down, then examine their betting records in Games 6 and 7 of playoff series.

When Warriors Enter Game 6 behind in a Series

2018 Western Conference Finals vs. Houston Rockets

The Warriors opened the series with a Game 1 victory in Houston, then took a bit of a tumble. They would go on to lose three of the next four games, leading to Game 6 at home in Oracle Arena.

Late in Game 5 with about 45 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Chris Paul re-aggravated a hamstring injury that would eventually keep him out of Games 6 and 7.

Chris Paul appears to aggravate hamstring injury late in 4th quarter pic.twitter.com/ZymxtH0J6Q

— gifdsports (@gifdsports) May 25, 2018

Golden State won Game 6 at home by 29 points, but actually trailed 39-22 at the end of the first quarter, mostly due to a 17-3 run by Houston to end the first. The Warriors would then go on to out-score the Rockets by 46 points over the next three quarters to take Game 6.

In Game 7, the Warriors stormed into Houston and used their patented third-quarter explosion to beat the Rockets, 101-92, to advance to the NBA Finals.

2016 Western Conference Finals vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Warriors first felt the feeling of being down 3-1 in a playoff series in 2016.

Golden State split the first two games of the series at home in Oracle, then lost Games 3 and 4 on the road in Oklahoma City by a combined 52 points.

It wasn’t easy, but the Warriors ended up winning the next three games — all by single-digits — to overcome the 3-1 deficit and advance to the NBA Finals.

Warriors in Games 6 and 7

Under Steve Kerr, Golden State is 8-2 straight up and against the spread in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series.In our Bet Labs database, which dates back to the 2004-05 season, no head coach with a minimum of five Game 6 or 7s played has a better ATS win percentage than Kerr.

Away from Oracle Arena, where they would have to win a Game 7 to secure their third consecutive title, the Warriors are simply a different team.

In Games 6 and 7, Golden State is 6-1 SU and ATS on the road. The Warriors’ only loss? Game 6 on the road in Cleveland during the 2016 NBA Finals — a series they would lose in seven games.

In the second halves of those seven Games 6 and 7 on the road, the Warriors are 6-0-1 SU on the second-half moneyline, beating their opponents by seven points per game.

The Warriors have played 104 playoff games under Kerr, 10 of which have been Games 6 or 7 while 94 have been Games 1-5.

In Games 1-5, the Warriors are just 49-44-1 (52.7%) ATS under Kerr. They have a slight edge on the road, going 23-18-1 ATS compared to an even 26-26 ATS record at Oracle Arena.

Where the Warriors have excelled the most during their five-year run is in Game 6…

Game 1: 11-9 ATS (55%, +2.8 PPG)
Game 2: 11-9 ATS (55%, +1.5 PPG)
Game 3: 10-10 ATS (50%, -0.7 PPG)
Game 4: 11-8-1 ATS (57.9%, +1.2 PPG)
Game 5: 6-8 ATS (42.9%, -1.3 PPG)
Game 6: 6-1 ATS (85.7%, +7 PPG)
Game 7: 2-1 ATS (66.7%, -1.5 PPG)

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