NBA Odds & Betting Pick for Mavs vs. Hawks: Can Atlanta Hold Serve at State Farm Arena?

NBA Odds & Betting Pick for Mavs vs. Hawks: Can Atlanta Hold Serve at State Farm Arena? article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks dunks over Jarrett Allen #31 of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

  • The Mavericks are a short underdog at State Farm Arena on Thursday night as they take on the Atlanta Hawks.
  • The Hawks were great at home last season and it helped will them to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
  • Can Luka Doncic and Dallas keep up? Let's break it down.

Mavericks vs. Hawks Odds

Mavs Odds+2.5
Hawks Odds-2.5
Over/Under224.5 (-110 / -110)
Time7:40 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The NBA is finally back!

No better way to start off this season than to have two high-powered, playoff-contending teams battling it out when the Dallas Mavericks play the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena.

Did Mavs Get Worse This Summer?

The Mavericks' offseason was the prime example of a swing and a miss.

After swallowing a tough Game 7 loss in the playoffs, the Mavericks looked to add key pieces to build around Luka Doncic in the offseason, while also entertaining the idea of landing a superstar free agent to pair with the point guard.

Unfortunately, neither fell into place for the Mavericks, thus they returned the same starting five as last season.

Since no new acquisitions were made, we should see the same Dallas Mavericks issues: a high octane offense that is paired with a lackluster defense.

The Mavericks, per NBA Advanced stats, had the league's 22nd-ranked defense coming in at 113.1 rating.

Will this team's defensive woes carry over into this 2021-2022 season?

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Hawks Look to Build on Last Year

The Hawks will look to continue their second-half success from last season in their season opener at home.

The Hawks bring back the same starting five and the same head coach that sparked this team for a second-half run and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.

The Hawks should expect similar numbers to carry over from last season.

A few key stats to consider: the Hawks possessed the seventh-best home record in the NBA last season at (25-11). A key reason for the home court success was that the Hawks were lethal from three, shooting an NBA best 37.3%, per NBA Advanced stats.

The Hawks’ biggest offseason move, resigning John Collins was a major point of emphasis. Collins, in his two games vs. the Mavericks, has had his way, scoring 33 and 35 points.

Mavericks-Hawks Pick

Applying a few situational trends, we can string them together to make a sound investment on the Hawks moneyline.

The Hawks were a solid (21-6) straight up as a home favorite. Building on this, since 2017, home favorites across the whole NBA when it's the team’s first game of the season are a hot (24-7) SU.

Finally, we have a proficient fade trend active on the Mavericks. Since the 2017 NBA season, away dogs, when the line is greater than or equal to four, are just a lousy (8-25).

I predict to see a continuation of these trends. Expect the Hawks to continue their home court success and pick up a win.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks ML (-135)

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