Friday NBA Odds, Pick, Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Preview

Friday NBA Odds, Pick, Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Preview article feature image

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kristaps Porzingis #6 of the Dallas Mavericks.

  • The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns will meet Friday for the second time this week.
  • The Suns are nearly double-digit favorites in a matchup that likely won't feature Luka Doncic. But is there more value on the over/under?
  • Tyler Schmidt previews the matchup below, which includes his favorite bet.

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds

Mavericks Odds+8
Suns Odds-8
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The "run-it-back" games as I like to call them have become more common in the league these days. The Phoenix Suns hosted the Dallas Mavericks two nights ago with the Suns winning 105-98. They will "run-it-back" tonight with the same spread.

Last game, the Mavericks were able to cover the spread by one point, while the under hit by nine points. According to Bet Labs, across the league this season the under has hit at nearly 61%, which is incredibly high.

Let's do a deep dive into both squads and find out the best way to approach this game from a betting standpoint.

Do the Mavericks Have Anything Left?

The major news here is Luka Doncic is doubtful out due to injury. He missed last game and the Dallas Mavericks lost to the Suns 105-98. A loss isn't that surprising given that Doncic leads the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists this season. Not only that, but he leads the entire league in usage rate with 35.6%. The next closest is Paul George who has a 34.9% usage rate.

The Dallas Mavericks are 9-5 this season, however they are 3-4 on the road. It doesn't make sense to dive too deep into their season, because they are so much different without Doncic on the floor. Last season in the six games that Doncic missed, the Mavericks failed to cover in four of those games while the total split 3-3 going over and under. They are 8-point underdogs tonight.

Without Doncic, the Mavericks started Jalen Brunson in his place alongside Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, and Dwight Powell. Every starter besides Powell played 32 or more minutes as this game was surprisingly competitive.

Brunson nearly had a triple-double with 18 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. Porzingis also had 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. He has had four straight games with more than 20 points.

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Brunson #13 of the Dallas Mavericks.

The real question is, can they keep it that close again tonight? They held a 5-point lead going into the fourth quarter last game, before Devin Booker got hot and closed the door on them.

Their schedule is also interesting, because the Mavericks next two games are both in Los Angeles against the Clippers. They probably will start to feel like a baseball team going on the road to play another two-game series. We'll see how they fair in their first run-it-back series tonight against the Suns.

This matchup against the Suns is a difficult one from an offensive standpoint. They rank fifth in Defensive Rating this season with 103.1 this season. The Suns have also held each of their last four opponents to under 100 points. During that time they are allowing a very low 94.25 points per game! As you recall, the Mavericks only had 98 points in their last game against the Suns.

The Mavericks had an Offensive Rating of 116.9, while scoring 113.3 points per game with Doncic last season. In the six games that Doncic missed, they had an Offensive Rating of 107.6 while scoring 102.5 points per game. They played at a super slow Pace last season, but played even slower without Doncic on the floor. I think they could struggle scoring even more this game against the Suns.

Can the Phoenix Suns Make it 11 Straight Wins?

After getting to the NBA Finals last season, the Phoenix Suns are quietly well on their way to make it two straight appearances. They have won an incredible 10 straight games after starting the season 1-3. Despite Deandre Ayton not playing six of those games, the Suns have used their depth to keep winning.

Speaking of Ayton, he sure showed out in their game two nights ago against the Mavericks. He finished with a double-double on 19 points and 13 rebounds, while playing a season-high 36 minutes. This matchup for Ayton is one that he can absolutely feast on. An early Thanksgiving dinner.

The Mavericks rank 24th in points allowed in the paint with 48.2 per game, while their opponents are grabbing 37.8 defensive rebounds per game which is tied for second most.

Through the Suns first 14 games, their games have gone under the point total in 10 of them for a 71% hit rate. They have been favored in 13 games this season and they have covered eight of those games, with the under hitting in 10 of those 13. Taking it one step further, in eight home games this season, the under has hit in five those eight and they have covered half of those games.

Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Cameron Johnson #23, Jae Crowder #99, Cameron Payne #15, Chris Paul #3 and Deandre Ayton #22 of the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have their core players all back from their championship run last season. Booker leads the Suns in points with 23 per game — his sixth season averaging over 20 points.

Chris Paul not only leads the Suns, but leads the entire league with 10.5 assists per game. Paul hasn't averaged 10-plus assists since the 2015-16 season. He leads they league by 1.3 assists per game. This duo of Booker and Paul has been awesome yet again.

Besides in the interior which is certainly important to any team, I would say the Mavericks defense sets up pretty well to eliminate what the Suns like to do. That would be to play an up-tempo style of game. The Suns rank fourth in the league in Pace this season with 101.96. The Mavericks however, rank fourth this season in least amount of transition points allowed with 16.5 per game.

The Mavericks are in the middle of the pack ranking 16th in Defensive Rating with 108.0 this season, while they play at the ninth slowest Pace at 97.79. In six games without Doncic last season, the Mavericks actually had a better Defensive Rating. They went from 114.0 allowing 113.3 points per game with Doncic, to 111.7 allowing 102.5 points per game without Doncic in the lineup.

Mavericks-Suns Pick

Between last season and one game this season, the Mavericks have played seven total games without Doncic in the lineup. During those games, the Mavericks have averaged just 101.86 points per game.

It is not a shocker they struggle to score the basketball without one of the favorites to win MVP. Doncic currently has the third-highest consensus odds to win the NBA MVP.

The under for this same matchup two games ago came in at 212. It is the same total for tonight's game. The under is intriguing in this game, but I am going to take it one step deeper and actually suggest you take the Mavericks under their team total which is currently set at 102.5 at BetMGM. If you're really bearish on the Mavs offense, you can bet take the under down to 100.5 at plus money (+110).

Pick: Mavericks Under Team Total 102.5 (-120)

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Apr 21, 2024 UTC