Suns vs. Grizzlies NBA Betting Odds, Pick Preview: Is the Wrong Team Favored in Memphis?

Suns vs. Grizzlies NBA Betting Odds, Pick Preview: Is the Wrong Team Favored in Memphis? article feature image

Michael Gonzales/Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Booker

  • The Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns will face off Friday in a clash of West contenders.
  • The Suns opened as 1-point underdogs to the Grizzlies before the market flipped in their favor.
  • Joe Dellera explains where to find value on the spread in this matchup.

Suns vs. Grizzlies Odds

Suns Odds-1.5
Grizzlies Odds+1.5
Time8 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Chris Paul and the Suns head to Memphis to take on Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. The Suns are in the midst of a six-game winning streak while the Grizzlies look to rebound off a loss to the Charlotte Hornets.

Let's break down this matchup between two Western Conference hopefuls.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are dealing with a few injuries as Landry Shamet is questionable with a foot injury and Deandre Ayton is doubtful with a lower leg injury.

Despite these injuries, the Suns have not missed a beat. Both JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky have played valuable minutes at the center position, with Kaminsky having a career day dropping 31 on the Blazers on Wednesday. Keep an eye out for his props as Dan Titus and I detailed in our Fantasy Basketball Forecast.

Over their six-game winning streak, the Suns have an Offensive Rating of 110.8 and a Net Rating of +8.1, per NBA Advanced Stats. They have an incredible 58.6% eFG% over this streak, which is fourth-best in the league over this stretch, per Cleaning the Glass. While there's room for regression based on their expected eFG%, they are an elite midrange shooting team, and this influences that expected eFG%.

Memphis Grizzlies

While the Grizzlies just saw Steven Adams pop on the injury report as questionable with a sprained ankle, they did see Dillon Brooks return last game to supplement their strong corps of wings. With Brooks' return, he cut into Desmond Bane's playing time, and although this may have been due to Bane's poor shooting night, it's something to monitor.

Brooks should help the Grizzlies' struggling defense a bit considering he's been a defensive plus throughout his career but a lot of work needs to be done overall. The Grizzlies have the league's worst Defensive Rating (112.4), and they're allowing opponents to shoot an eFG% of 56.0% (league-worst) and  a blistering 39.9% from 3-point range.

Suns-Grizzlies Pick

This line is wild. The Suns are opening as a 1 point road underdog, and while the Grizzlies have improved this season in the win and loss columns, their advanced metrics are not favorable.

Chris Paul is going to pick apart the league's worst defense. When the Suns have played teams with bottom-10 defenses, they see their scoring output jump to 112.7 per 100 possessions, and they've secured wins in four of those six contests.

This is a bad matchup for the Grizzlies. While both teams take the majority of their shots from 2-point range, the Suns are flat out better at it. Moreover, with Steven Adams potentially missing this game, that means more Xavier Tillman. Tillman is an exciting young player, but he does not have the defensive presence of Adams.

I’ll back the road team, and I would not be surprised to see this line flip by tip off.

Pick: Suns +1

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Jun 12, 2024 UTC