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College Football Bowl Projections for Week 5: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions With Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 5: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions With Projected Spreads article feature image
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Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota cornerback Justin Walley.

Week 5 College Football Bowl Projections

Since my initial preseason projections in August, my weekly College Football Playoff picks have included Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State in some fashion.

After the season’s first full month, those three remain carved in stone in my final four.

While projecting the College Football Playoff field has been pretty simple each week, it’s been more difficult determining the Group of Five’s representative in the Cotton Bowl.

In the past few weeks, I had Marshall and Appalachian State slotted in the Cotton Bowl after massive upsets over Notre Dame and Texas A&M, respectively. However, both schools have since lost Sun Belt Conference games. So, the revolving door changes again this week with Cincinnati now my pick to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Onto the rest of my projections. Each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    Alabama

    -1

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -9.5

    Michigan

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -1

    Alabama


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    USC

    Penn State

    -1
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Washington

    Cincinnati

    -2.5
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    Oklahoma State

    -2.5

    Kentucky

  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Clemson

    -2.5

    Tennessee


Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Minnesota

    -1

    Ole Miss

  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Texas A&M

    -8

    Iowa

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Michigan State

    LSU

    -5
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Eastern Michigan

    San Diego State

    -9
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    NC State

    -1.5

    Florida

  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Wake Forest

    -1.5

    UCLA

  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    Maryland

    Pittsburgh

    -2.5
  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Baylor

    Utah

    -4
  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    Notre Dame

    Oklahoma

    -3.5
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Wisconsin

    -6.5

    Syracuse

  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    TCU

    -1

    Mississippi State

  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Florida State

    -9.5

    Oregon State

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Kansas

    Auburn

    -1
  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    Duke

    UCF

    -9.5
  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Illinois

    Kansas State

    -4.5
  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Troy

    -12

    Ohio

  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    Louisville

    -3

    Purdue

  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Texas Tech

    BYU

    -4
  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Rutgers

    -5

    Central Michigan

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    UNLV

    UTSA

    -8.5
  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Miami

    -12.5

    Indiana

  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Army

    Tulane

    -5
  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Texas

    -8

    SMU

  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    Western Kentucky

    Coastal Carolina

    -3
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    Georgia Southern

    UAB

    -11.5
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Miami (OH)

    Fresno State

    -5.5
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Middle Tennessee

    East Carolina

    -18
  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    Iowa State

    -8.5

    Boise State

  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Arkansas

    -1.5

    Oregon

  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Appalachian State

    -2

    Toledo

  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    Air Force

    -5
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    Wyoming

    Houston

    -14
  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    North Carolina

    -5

    Memphis

  • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Orlando, FL

    Marshall

    San Jose State

    -2.5
  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Nassau, Bahamas

    Florida Atlantic

    Northern Illinois

    -1.5
  • TBA Bowl**

    TBD
    TBD

    South Alabama

    -2.5

    Liberty


* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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