Mississippi State-Ole Miss Betting Guide: Are Bulldogs Primed for Egg Bowl Massacre?

Mississippi State-Ole Miss Betting Odds, Pick

• Odds: Mississippi State -13
• Over/Under: 61.5
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

By Evan Abrams

Ole Miss is trying to avoid betting history on Thursday night.

If the Rebels can't cover the spread against Mississippi State, they will join four other teams who have gone winless (with no pushes) against the spread in conference play since 2005 per our Bet Labs data. They would third to do it in a Power 5 conference and the first in the SEC.

Mississippi’s -10.5 ATS differential is the second-worst among the four other teams, only ahead of Hawaii last season in the Mountain West:

• 2017 Hawaii: 0-8 ATS (-11.3 PPG)
• 2010 Michigan: 0-8 ATS (-9.6 PPG)
• 2008 Washington: 0-9 ATS (-10.3 PPG)
• 2005 New Mexico St: 0-8 ATS (-8.4 PPG)

Even with so many rivalries in college football, you would have a hard time finding two fanbases with more bad blood. Mississippi State might not know, but it would enjoy keeping Ole Miss winless ATS in SEC play.

Odds Moves for Ole Miss-Mississippi State

By Danny Donahue

Mississippi State has dominated the betting market over the course of the short week. The Bulldogs have moved from -8.5 to -13 since opening, behind 64% of bets and 83% of dollars. The total got hammered from 59 to 61.5 on Wednesday afternoon behind 87% of dollars on the over (You can find live betting data here).

Sports Insights' Bet Signals tracked steam moves — sharp action that causes a uniform line move across the market — on Mississippi State and the over several times between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

One Key Trend

By John Ewing

Mississippi State walloped Arkansas 52-6 last Saturday. Since 2005, ranked teams that won their previous game by 40 or more points have struggled to cover the following week when playing a road conference game: 72-100-4 (42%) ATS.

Bad Matchup for Ole Miss

By Stuckey

This is an extremely bad matchup on paper for Ole Miss, which has failed to cover this season as Evan pointed out.

Mississippi State’s offensive line is one of its primary weaknesses, but Ole Miss can’t generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Rebels rank 116 in sack rate and has just eight sacks in seven SEC games.

Ole Miss also struggles to defend the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry (106th). That spells trouble against the Bulldogs' elite rushing offense, which ranks 14th in country at 5.7 yards per rush.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State excels at defending the pass (fourth in S&P+ Pass Defense), which is critical against the explosive Ole Miss passing attack.

However, this is the Rebels’ championship game since they won’t be headed to a Bowl, similar to last year when they won in Starkville — although Nick Fitzgerald did get hurt in the first quarter.

Ole Miss Struggles vs. Elite Defenses

By Steve Petrella

The Rebels have played three games against top-25 S&P+ defenses this season. The results have been … less than stellar. Mississippi State ranks No. 5, ahead of Alabama, LSU and Auburn.

Last year, Ole Miss faced similar problems against those defenses, but did average 6.6 yards per play and score 31 points against Mississippi State, which was a top-20 defense in 2017.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

I agree with Stuckey that this is the championship for Ole Miss players, but there should be motivation on Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead’s part to dominate this game if possible. That will go a long way toward winning over a fanbase that has been slightly disappointed with his first season.

The best way to handicap this game is to look at what each team does best and see if the other side can stop it. Ole Miss is fantastic in just about every possible offensive category with the exception of field position (126th) and passing downs sack rate (113th).

Jordan Ta’amu will leave the pocket in a moments notice, explaining the sack rate, but field position is directly related to Mississippi's special teams S&P+ rank of 110th and porous defense. The Rebels excel in offensive efficiency and explosiveness, and the defense is the exact opposite.

The Mississippi State offense will come down to one thing: Can Nick Fitzgerald get his own run game going to set up passes? If you can stop Fitzgerald from running, then you expose his biggest weakness — accuracy. Mississippi State ranks 119th in completion percentage.

The Ole Miss defense is 115th in opportunity rate and 109th in stuff rate, while ranking 118th in overall rush efficiency. Ole Miss linebackers have a havoc ranking of 107th, which doesn’t bode well for stopping Fitzgerald,  one of the best pure running quarterbacks in the nation.

The Action Network power ratings make this game Ole Miss +11.5 and if the number trends closer to 10, I will be looking to get money down on Cowbell. If not, a live play may be in order.

A Case for the Over

By Steve Petrella

The total has gotten away from us given all the money and movement on Wednesday, but I think this game will feature loads of points.

Joe Moorhead didn't hesitate to run up scores against rivals as Penn State's offensive coordinator, and I think the Bulldogs will continue to pound Ole Miss on the ground late in the game. The Rebels will take enough shots deep in the passing game to hold up their end of the bargain, as well.