Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: 3 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet for Week 13

Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: 3 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet for Week 13 article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Baylor head coach Matt Rhule

  • Don't forget about betting underdogs on the moneyline when finalizing your Week 13 college football bets.
  • Three of our college football experts give their best moneyline underdog bets for Week 13.
  • If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of all three pays approximately 40-1.

Like we do each week, we’ll give out our favorite moneyline underdogs on the Week 13 college football slate. Bet one that catches your eye, throw all three in a longshot parlay or just absorb some additional insight ahead of the weekend.

Two of the plays always come from Collin Wilson and me on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other.

We struck out last weekend for the first Saturday in a while, thanks to Chevon Cordeiro. The freshman quarterback (who went to the same high school as Tua Tagovailoa and Marcus Mariota) entered the game in the fourth quarter and led Hawaii back from a 15-point deficit. That brought our YTD record to 13-22 +5.35 units.

In the final regular season moneyline underdog parlay edition of 2018, we are rolling with three underdogs that all pay at least 2-1. If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of all three pays approximately 40-1.

Let’s get things started on Friday before finishing up with the final two on Saturday.


>> All odds as of Wednesday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time CFB odds and track your bets


Locky: Nebraska +335

  • Spread: Iowa -10
  • Over/Under: 53.5
  • Time: Friday, Noon ET
  • TV: FOX

I can get a Huskers team playing their best football of the season, with Adrian Martinez firmly established as a future star at quarterback, at a monster number in a game where they are only at a small disadvantage? Sign me up.

Comparing the two units, Iowa has a small edge in S&P+ on both sides, but that also takes into account all of the awful football Nebraska played at the beginning of the season. If I only use the past four or five games, the pendulum suddenly swings the other way.

Iowa absolutely dump-trucked Illinois last week, covering by a country mile, but that has virtually nothing to do with this game. Nebraska is not only more talented and better coached than Illinois, it also doesn’t have one of the worst defenses in college football. That blowout Iowa win may very well be inflating this number just a bit.

Don’t forget that Nebraska closed -1.5 against Michigan State last week. And now it is getting 10 on the road? Is Iowa really that much better than Michigan State? Absolutely not.

I’ll take the Huskers here to end their season on a high note heading into the second year of the Scott Frost era.

Stuckey: Baylor +200

  • Spread: Texas Tech -6
  • Over/Under: 65
  • Time: Saturday, Noon ET
  • TV: FS1

After watching some of that sad performance at Kansas State last week, I think this Texas Tech team is done. The Red Raiders have dropped four straight games after a 5-2 start and this could mark the final chapter of the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

The Red Raiders amassed 181 total yards on 2.6 yards per play in that 21-6 loss to Kansas State. How? Well, their starting quarterback (third different starter of the season) Jett Duffey played with a torn meniscus, which limited his mobility — a key aspect of his game. They also have a very banged up offensive line.

Those problems could get even worse this week, as Texas Tech could potentially be forced to start its fourth string quarterback.

On the other hand, I think head coach Matt Rhule will have this Baylor team fired up to achieve its primary goal of making a bowl, which would mean a lot after finishing 1-11 last year.

In a matchup of two teams fighting for a Bowl bid on a neutral field (AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX), give me the better coach and healthier team.

Collin Wilson: Florida State +210

  • Spread: Florida -6.5
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Time: Saturday, Noon ET
  • TV: ABC

If you read my weekly CW9 column, you know I love the Seminoles, who should be very motivated at home vs. in-state rival Florida. The ‘Noles are looking to extend their record 36-year bowl season streak, which stayed alive after a dramatic 22-21 victory over Boston College last week.

Florida State got off to an absolutely horrid start this season — in large part due to its offensive line play. However, that unit has performed much better of late, now ranking 29th in Adjusted Sack Rate on passing downs.

Surprisingly, Florida State ranks 10th in standard downs explosiveness, which falls in line with Willie Taggart’s offensive scheme. I think the Seminoles can hit a number of big plays against a Florida defense that ranks outside the top 80 in both passing and rushing IsoPPP+ (adjusted measure of explosiveness, per S&P+).

And on the other side of the ball, Florida State’s defense has been solid all season, ranking 30th in rush efficiency and 39th in pass efficiency.

In order to slow down Florida, you need to stop the run, which Florida State does extremely well. They have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry — the 15th lowest rate in the nation.

Florida State kept its streak alive last year with a win over Florida on this same weekend and I think it does so again for its sixth straight win over the Gators.


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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