Tennessee vs. Kentucky Odds & Pick: Can Vols Stop Wildcats’ Ground Attack?

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Odds & Pick: Can Vols Stop Wildcats’ Ground Attack? article feature image

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee RB Ty Chandler

Tennessee vs. Kentucky

  • Spread: Kentucky +1
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: SEC Network

Odds as of Friday morning via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The SEC bowl outlook is a mess, with Kentucky (4-4) and Tennessee (4-5) both fighting for postseason eligibility in the final months.

The Vols have turned a little bit of a corner, winning three of their last four (with the loss coming in a covering effort against Alabama).

Kentucky has turned to a run-only offense thanks to quarterback injuries, throwing for fewer than 100 yards in four straight games.

Do the positional matchups favor the Vols or Wildcats on Saturday?

Model Prediction for Kentucky-Tennessee

Using his power ratings, available to Action EDGE members, Collin Wilson projects the spread and total for every Week 11 game. Factors like weather, injury and specific mismatches can alter the market number.

  • Spread: Kentucky -0.2
  • Total: 46.7

Since an injury to Sawyer Smith, Kentucky football has been the Lynn Bowden Jr. show.

Running a version of the read-option, the quarterback is averaging 8 rushing yards per attempt with almost 100 yards more than lead running back Asim Rose. That’s pretty impressive for Bowden Jr, who also leads the team in receptions and receiving yards.

21 carries
205 yards
2 touchdowns

Lynn Bowden Jr. is GOING OFF 😤 pic.twitter.com/82Hjcjnr9S

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 27, 2019

Tennessee has had success on defense against the pass, ranking 12th in opponent pass explosiveness and a sack rate of 21st. With respect to the numbers, the Volunteers racked up those numbers against traditional quarterbacks. Kentucky’s rank of 29th in explosive rush is all Bowden Jr, and should be on full display against a Volunteers defense that is outside the top 100 in line yards, opportunity rate and stuff rate.

Whether Jarrett Guarantano or Brian Maurer start under center for Tennessee, Kentucky has fielded one of the best stop units against the pass. The Wildcats are eighth in opponents explosive passing, taking away the Volunteers biggest weapon.

With two weeks to prepare and a solid havoc rank against Tennessee’s havoc allowed, the Wildcats will get tickets to the window led by Lynn Bowden Jr.

Pick: Kentucky -1 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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