Wilson: My Projected College Football Odds for Every Week 11 Matchup
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Saban
- Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project odds for all Week 11 college football games.
- Use them to find early betting value on Sunday when these lines first open.
The College Football Playoff rankings will have their first release this Tuesday. And if the committee just used the Action Network power ratings, the semifinals would consist of two SEC teams.
Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson and LSU are the top 4 teams in our system. The Bengal Tigers would be short favorites over the next teams out, including Oklahoma and Georgia. Penn State, Utah, Auburn and Oregon round out the top 10, but would be about a touchdown underdog to LSU.
The playoff rankings will be fluid, as LSU and Alabama are set to meet in Week 11. The lookahead line of Alabama -8 was down to Alabama -6 over the weekend, as Tua Tagovailoa’s status remains uncertain. The Crimson Tide starting quarterback did participate in practice this past Wednesday.
The Action Network estimates the line to be Alabama -7.5 with a 100% healthy Tagovailoa and -2.5 without him.
We’re projecting every Week 11 point spread below in anticipation of Sunday openers.
Look here in preparation for opening lines and follow me in The Action Network App when I bet those lines on Sunday afternoon.
Projected College Football Odds, Week 11
A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; a positive number indicates the home team is an underdog.
Week 11 Scheduling Notes
- Arizona State, Wyoming, Stanford, Duke, Missouri, Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, New Mexico State, San Diego State, South Alabama, Georgia State and Texas Tech are all off a bye week.
- Southern Miss comes off a bye week against UAB, which is on back-to-back travel.
- Texas comes off a bye week against Kansas State, which is on back-to-back travel.
- Temple-South Florida, LSU-Alabama, Washington State-Cal, Penn State-Minnesota, Iowa State-Oklahoma and Iowa-Wisconsin will each face each other off a bye week.
- Liberty and Vanderbilt will be on back-to-back travel.
Week 10 Injury Notes
- Arkansas TE Cheyenne O’Grady was suspended indefinitely. He was the Razorbacks leading receiver in yards, receptions and touchdowns.
- Georgia Tech QB Lucas Johnson left the game with an undisclosed injury. It is unknown if he will play against Virginia.
- Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. returned this week but left the game in the first half with an undisclosed injury.
- Wyoming QB Sean Chambers will miss the remainder of the season with an undefined injury.
- Vanderbilt QB Riley Neal exited Saturday’s game with an undisclosed injury.
- Purdue QB Jack Plummer is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a lower-leg injury.
Week 11 Situational Spots to Play
- UConn, Tulsa, Rutgers, Northwestern, UTEP, UNLV and Arkansas are no longer bowl eligible (with the assumption of no spots for 5 win teams).
- East Carolina, Houston, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Maryland, Purdue, Middle Tennessee, Army, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss will not be bowl eligible with another loss (with the assumption of no spots for 5 win teams).
- Washington fell to 2-4 in conference after a loss to Utah. The Huskies are dealing with a number of injuries and now travel to Oregon State, which has won three of its last four conference games.
- Florida will look to rebound from a loss to Georgia against Vanderbilt. There is no love lost between Dan Mullen and Derek Mason.
Following a targeting call on the Gators, Florida's Dan Mullen and Vanderbilt's Derek Mason exchanged words. pic.twitter.com/ZhTimyBWdj
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) October 13, 2018
- Looking for their first bowl game in FBS history, Charlotte’s explosive running attack travels to one of the worst defensive front’s in the country with UTEP. The 49ers had two 100-yard rushers in Benny LeMay’s absence.
- Knocked out of the top spot in the Pac-12 South, USC will take its air raid offense to a rested Arizona State running a 3-3-5 defense
- Western Kentucky starting QB Ty Storey is a transfer from Arkansas, and the Hilltoppers meet the Razorbacks this weekend.