Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 11 College Football Matchups
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Antoine Winfield Jr.
Our totals continued to roll on The Action Network App last week, with unders on UCLA-Colorado and Bowling Green-Akron, while an over on Navy-UConn nearly cashed in the first half.
Plenty of teams have formed identities at this point in the season, and the sample sizes are meaningful.
Wisconsin, Utah and Kansas State dominate time of possession. Oregon State, Minnesota and Charlotte rank in the top 10 in red zone touchdown scoring (which could lead to a sneaky over for the Gophers this weekend against Penn State).
There are a bunch of things I’m focused on when handicapping totals this week and every week.
Straight from the five factors, finishing drives is a measure of points per trip inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. Red zone points per attempt takes a look at not only conversions, but if a team gets in the end zone over kicking field goals.
South Florida-Temple sticks out from an under perspective in Week 11. Both teams are mid-pack in the FBS in finishing drives offensively, but the Bulls and Owls defenses are top 10 in opponent red zone points per attempt. South Florida and Temple have a defensive rank in stuff rate just inside the top 20, indicating the red zone defense will have the final say in the game total.
So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.
Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.
Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 11 projected point spreads are here.
Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.
Projected College Football Totals, Week 11
Notes on Totals for Week 11
- The early forecast calls for no significant precipitation in any game from Tuesday through Saturday’s slate.
- Winds are projected greater than 15 mph when Florida International takes the bus ride to Florida Atlantic, per Sports Insights. The Owls are top 10 in red zone scoring percentage, while the Panthers are 128th in opponent red zone scoring rate.
- Wake Forest, SMU and Tulsa sit atop the plays per game leaderboard after Week 10. Each of the three teams averaged 89 plays or more over its past three games.
- Oklahoma, Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama remain as the only teams over 3 yards per play net differential. LSU has steadily fallen to +2.7 with a slide in opponent passive explosiveness rank to 113th.
- UTSA continues to toe the line in negative yards per play differential at -3.6. Syracuse has taken the biggest dive in recent weeks, now at -1.9 yards per play differential