NFL Week 8 Monday Morning Moneyback: Chalk stays hot

NFL Week 8 Monday Morning Moneyback: Chalk stays hot article feature image

Favorites followed up last Sunday’s 8-3-2 ATS performance with another strong 7-4 ATS yesterday; the Panthers (+1) were the only team to win outright.

Road teams (excluding the London game) came out on top ATS in Week 8 at a 6-4 clip, and overs finished 6-5 against the closing number.

From an entertainment value standpoint, we experienced a fairly average day of football with a 10.7 point average margin of victory. Weather on the East Coast caused quite a bit of sloppiness, but at least five of the 11 games finished within one possession.

The Browns and 49ers both dropped to 0-8 on the year and appear to be in quite the battle for the overall No. 1 draft pick.

The Cardinals, Packers, Jaguars, Giants, Rams and Titans all had byes this week; the Bears, Browns, Vikings, Patriots, Steelers, and Chargers each have byes next week.

Key Injuries on Sunday:

49ers T Joe Staley – Eye (?)
49ers T Garry Gilliam – Knee (?)
49ers WR Pierre Garcon – Neck (?)
49ers DE Solomon Thomas – Knee (?)
49ers FS Jimmie Ward – Forearm (?)
49ers DT D.J. Jones – Knee (?)
Bears TE Zach Miller – Leg (OUT)
Bengals DE Michael Johnson – Back (?)
Cowboys WR Cole Beasley – Concussion (?)
Eagles CB Patrick Robinson – Head (?)
Jets CB Morris Claiborne – Foot (?)
Panthers G Trai Turner – Knee (?)
Patriots WR Chris Hogan – Shoulder (?)
Patriots RT Marcus Cannon – Ankle (?)
Raiders FB Jamize Olawalwe – Hamstring (?)
Redskins TE Jordan Reed – Hamstring (?)
Redskins TE Niles Paul – Concussion (?)
Redskins LG Shawn Lauvao – Stinger (?)

Vikings (-11) vs Browns

  • The Vikings defeated the Browns in London on Sunday by a final score of 33-16, which pleased anybody that wagered on the over 38.5. The Browns did actually lead 13-12 at the half (and 16-15 late in the third quarter), but the Vikings extended late for the straight up win and cover, finishing on an 18-0 run over the final 16 minutes.

  • Adam Thielen caught five balls for 98 yards and a touchdown. Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon also found the endzone for the now 6-2 first place Vikings.

  • Believe it or not, Isaiah Crowell led Cleveland in both rushing and receiving yards yesterday. On a rare positive note, the Browns’ rush defense continued its dominance, as they held the Vikings to only 88 yards rushing on 34 carries, which improved their league leading 3.0 average yards per rush allowed.

  • The Browns, now 1-23 over their last 24 games, tied an NFL record yesterday with their 25th straight Sunday loss.

  • Xavier Rhodes is the only cornerback in the NFL this season to not allow a receiving touchdown with a minimum of 300 snaps.

49ers at Eagles (-13)

  • The Eagles rolled the 49ers 33-10 in the Philadelphia rain on Sunday, improving their league-best record to 7-1. Philly only finished with 60 more total yards in a game that was actually tied 3-3 at the two-minute warning in the first half before it snowballed on the Niners. A pass interference in the endzone on third and long led to an easy six for Philadelphia, who followed that score with a pick six 31 seconds later.

  • San Francisco suffered numerous critical injuries throughout the game, highlighted by Joe Staley, Jimmy Ward, Solomon Thomas and Pierre Garcon; of the 18 players listed on the injury report included above, six are 49ers. As a result of the offensive line injuries, the 49ers could never establish a rushing attack; C.J. Beathard actually led the team with 40 yards on the ground.

  • Carson Wentz, who threw for two touchdowns as part of a modest day, set the NFL record for most completions through a player’s first 24 games. Wentz now leads the NFL with 19 passing touchdowns.

  • The 49ers dropped to 0-8 on the season and 3-25 over their last 28 games; all three of those wins came against the Rams.

Raiders at Bills (-1.5)

  • Believe it or not, the Bills improved to 4-0 at home for first time since 1995 after a 34-14 rout of the Raiders on Sunday in Orchard Park. Oakland actually outgained Buffalo 367-331 in total yards, but they couldn’t overcome two massive fumbles deep in their own territory.

  • Buffalo forced four total turnovers on Sunday to bring their 2017 turnover margin to an NFL leading +14, which marks the best differential through seven games since the 2005 Bengals. Buffalo has only turned the ball over three times this year, a franchise record through seven games.

  • LeSean McCoy finished the day with 151 yards rushing on 27 carries, but that yardage total is slightly inflated by a 50-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach, which caused under 47.5 backers to rip up their tickets.

  • Derek Carr could never get it going against a Bills secondary that was missing two starters. Shareece Wright filled in admirably for the injured E.J. Gaines, and Micah Hyde, who leads the NFL in interceptions, stepped up his game to cover for the injured Jordan Poyer.

  • With a road win against the Jets this Thursday night, the Bills can get to 6-2 to start the season for the first time since 1993, which would put them in a good position to end their 17-year playoff drought.

Colts (+11) at Bengals

  • Carlos Dunlap returned a Jacoby Brissett interception for a game-winning touchdown with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter to give the Bengals a 24-23 victory over the Colts; Dunlap’s pick six also pushed the total over 44.

  • Indianapolis actually outgained Cincinnati by 55 total yards on the day, but couldn’t overcome the late Bengals defensive score. Jack Doyle had a career day, finishing with 12 catches on 13 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown.

  • The Bengals couldn’t establish any type of consistent running game (21 carries for 58 yards), but Andy Dalton was efficient through the air. The "Red Rocket" threw for 243 yards on 17-29 passing with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. A.J. Green did find the endzone, but he was mainly held in check with only three grabs for 27 yards. Joe Mixon actually finished the day as the Bengals’ leading receiver.

  • Keep an eye out for what the Colts do before Tuesday’s trade deadline, as rumors swirl about potential deals for Vontae Davis and T.Y. Hilton.

Panthers (+1.5) at Buccaneers

  • In one of the uglier games of the day, the Panthers defeated the Bucs 17-3 in Tampa, a result that got under 46 backers to the window with ease.

  • Tampa Bay actually outgained Carolina 276-254 in total yards, but turnovers doomed them throughout. Jameis Winston threw two picks and lost a fumble as part of an abysmal overall day.

  • The offensive numbers for both teams were pretty offensive. Cam Newton, who only threw for 154 yards, led the Panthers in rushing with 44 yards. Christian McCaffrey, who has already set the single season franchise record for receptions by a running back, led the Panthers with only 49 receiving yards.

Bears at Saints (-7.5)

  • Depending on your number here, either side could have covered in the 20-12 Saints victory over the Bears. The Saints won their fifth straight game for the first time since 2013 and got their first win without a Brees passing touchdown since 2009. It didn’t matter when or where you bet the total, as the under 45.5 cashed without much stress.

  • Mitch Trubisky had a rough day in the pocket, finishing with only 164 yards on 14-32 passing with zero touchdowns and one interception. The only bright spots for the Bears offense were Jordan Howard, who rushed for over 100 yards, and Tre McBride, who surprisingly recorded three catches for 92 yards.

  • Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for two touchdowns and 175 total yards from scrimmage. Drew Brees spread the ball out to seven different receivers for 299 yards without a touchdown or interception; Brees joined Brett Favre and Peyton Manning as the only three quarterbacks in NFL history with at least 6,000 completions.

  • Marshon Lattimore, who you can pencil in as your defensive rookie of the year, had an interception in one of his only two targets yesterday. Lattimore now hasn’t allowed a reception in over nine quarters. The Saints’ defense, which allowed seven touchdowns in their first two games, has only allowed six touchdowns over their last four games.

Falcons at Jets (+6.5)

  • Falcons snapped their three-game losing streak by squeaking one out over the Jets by a final score of 25-20. Similar to the previous game in New Orleans, you could have covered either side depending on your number. This game sat at -4.5 all week before closing at -6.5 on Sunday; props if you pulled off the middle in MetLife. Over 43 backers cashed on a late Matt Bryant field goal, which was set up by a Jets turnover.

  • The Jets blew their second straight fourth quarter lead to fall to 3-5 on the season. While they have covered six straight in the first half, they continue to fade away in the final quarter, where they have been outscored 79-20 in 2017.

  • The Jets’ passing attack has been one of the surprise units in the NFL this season. In fact, Josh McCown became the first Jets quarterback to throw for multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games since Ray Lucas in 1999. Robby Anderson caught a touchdown pass on six catches for 104 yards.

  • You could easily point to special teams as the difference in this five-point game. Matt Bryant made all four of his field goals for the Falcons; conversely, Chandler Catanzara missed two of his four attempts for the Jets. Additionally, the Falcons added their final field goal in the fourth quarter after recovering a Jeremy Kerley muffed punt inside of the Jets’ 20-yard line.

Chargers at Patriots (-7)

  • The Patriots improved to 6-2 after a 21-13 victory over the Chargers on Sunday at Gilette Stadium. Props to all under 47 backers, who really had this nailed from the opening kick.

  • San Diego +7/+7.5 backers deserved a better outcome, as they missed the cover by a point on a Patriots field goal with a minute left in the fourth quarter. The Chargers also had two Tyrell Williams touchdowns called back; one on a legitimate penalty, but the other on a very questionable offensive pass interference flag. San Diego also missed a field goal, failed on a two-point conversion attempt and gave up two points plus possession on the first safety during a punt return since 2003.

  • Tom Brady did Tom Brady things on Sunday, finishing with 333 yards through the air on 32-47 passing with one touchdown and zero interceptions. Brady is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season. Washed up.

  • Melvin Gordon ran for 132 yards on just 14 carries thanks to an 87-yard touchdown run in the first half.

  • Joey Bosa recorded a sack of Tom Brady to set the NFL record for most sacks through a player’s first 20 games. PFF ranks Bosa and Melvin Ingram as the Nos. 1 and 2 edge rushers in the entire NFL.

Texans (+6) at Seahawks

  • In the most entertaining game of the day, the Seahawks, who have now won four straight, came back to beat the Texans 41-38. Over 45.5 backers cashed without having to break a sweat.

  • Deshaun Watson became the first player in NFL history with 400 yards passing, four passing touchdowns, and 50 yards rushing in a single game. Watson, who leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, also set the NFL record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie in his first seven games with 19. Watson is also the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw three touchdown passes in four straight games.

  • Russell Wilson, who threw for a franchise record 452 yards, accounted for 476 of the Seahawks’ 479 total yards. Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing with 30 yards; the Seattle running backs combined for three yards rushing on 17 carries. Paul Richardson, who scored two touchdowns, and Tyler Lockett each caught six passes for over 100 receiving yards.

  • DeAndre Hopkins had a monster day, finishing with eight receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown. Will Fuller added two more touchdowns on just five catches for 125 yards. Fuller now leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with seven despite missing the first three games of the season.

Cowboys (-3) at Redskins

  • The Cowboys secured their second straight road victory with a 33-19 win over their rival Redskins on Sunday. This game featured an enormous moose for under 45 bettors, who lost on a meaningless late Cowboys pick six with under 30 seconds left in the game.

  • The entire game changed on a blocked field goal. With three minutes left in the first half, the Redskins lined up for a field goal attempt to take a 16-7 lead, but the Cowboys blocked it, recovered it, and returned it to inside the Redskins 5-yard line. Instead of a 16-7 Washington lead, Dallas took a 14-13 lead into the half.

  • The weather was not conducive to throwing the ball, which is why the Cowboys rode Ezekiel Elliott to the finish line. Zeke carried the ball 33 times for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Conversely, the Redskins only ran the ball 15 times for 49 yards, in part due to an offensive line that has been decimated by injuries.

Steelers (-3) at Lions

  • The Steelers somehow escaped Detroit with a 20-15 win despite giving up 482 yards to the Lions. Teams gaining 450-plus yards of offense were 15-1 on the season before the Lions’ inexplicable loss. The Lions turned it over on downs inside the Steelers’ 10-yard line twice in the second half; they also fumbled inside the Steelers’ 20, and settled for a field goal on fourth and goal from the 1. Thanks to these Lions failures, under 44.5 cashed their tickets with ease.

  • The Lions finished with the third most total yards in NFL history without scoring a touchdown. Matt Stafford threw for 423 yards against the No. 1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, but he did not find the endzone; that was the most passing yards thrown without a touchdown since 2012, when you guessed it, Matt Stafford did it.

  • Juju Smith-Schuster had seven catches for 193 yards, including a 97-yard touchdown pass on third down after the Steelers made a goal line stand.

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