2023-24 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Tua Tagavailoa is Favored to Win MVP

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PlayerOdds
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens-20000
Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys+1600
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers+2500
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills+3000
Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers+5000
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins+12000
Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins+12000
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams+20000
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs+20000
Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles+20000

Entering the season, it appeared most people saw Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the clear-cut favorites to win the NFL MVP. 

Mahomes is currently +600 while Allen is +850.

But Tua Tagavailoa has completely taken over the MVP race. The Miami Dolphins quarterback has moved to +380 odds to win the MVP after the first three weeks of the season. The Dolphins are 3-0, Tagavailoa leads the NFL in passing yards and the Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. 

Tagavailoa is having the season that is needed to make voters quit thinking about Allen and Mahomes. 

Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the favorite entering last season and is back as the favorite at +550 odds. 

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had similar odds to Allen and Mahomes entering the season. But a poor Week 1 performance already has him falling down the odds board. 

There are some non-quarterbacks that have risen up the odds board. Christian McCaffrey is now 25-1 after opening around 80-1. Micah Parsons is currently 50-1. 

Be sure to keep checking this page in the lead-up to the season and during the season to get the latest odds for NFL MVP. 

Odds via FanDuel and updated in real-time.

Who is the favorite to win the NFL MVP?

1. Tua Tagavailoa +380

Tagavailoa jumped up into the MVP mix after a big win over the Chargers in Week 1. In the win, Tagavailoa threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. He's been able to keep a similar pace since the first week of the season. A 70-point explosion over the Broncos will help his chances as well. 

2. Patrick Mahomes +600

It was a surprise to many to see Mahomes not begin the season as the MVP favorite last year. He had already cemented himself as the best quarterback in the NFL. But it appeared to have put a chip on the shoulder of the Chiefs' gun slinger. He threw for over 500 more yards than any other quarterback during the 2022-23 season en route to one of his best seasons in the NFL. Can he repeat that kind of magic? Will he see some fatigue from voters? Many questions are going to be answered in 2023.

3. Josh Allen +850

Allen has been dubbed as the guy to push Mahomes in the new generation of quarterbacks. He went wire-to-wire with Mahomes in the playoffs in 2021 and has emerged as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. Could this be the year he takes the next step and becomes the Most Valuable Player in the NFL? 

How Do You Win NFL MVP?

We dove deeper into past NFL MVP winners, and there are three main qualifications:

  • Position: This is a quarterback award. Since 2000, there have been 19 quarterbacks to win and four running backs. An RB hasn't won since 2012.
  • Win total: Does the player's team have a path to the best record in the league? Of course, you'll want to look for teams with high win totals. And while win totals are not gospel, but it should give you a good starting point. (But if you think the Jags can win 11 games, by all means bet Trevor Lawrence.)
  • Stats: If everything goes really well, will that player have a statistical profile worthy of an MVP? Even though the Titans had one of the league's best records last year, Ryan Tannehill never got MVP consideration because he wasn't putting up big numbers.
FUTURESConsensusCons.
Lamar JacksonL.Jackson
-20000
-20000
-8000
-8000
-20000
-20000
-10000
Dak PrescottD.Prescott
+1694
+3000
+1600
+2200
+1800
+1600
+1600
C.J. StroudC.Stroud
+2500
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Brock PurdyB.Purdy
+2728
+4000
+3500
+2500
+3500
+2500
+2500
Trevor LawrenceT.Lawrence
+3000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Josh AllenJ.Allen
+3231
+2500
+3500
+3000
+5000
+3000
+3500
Christian McCaffreyC.McCaffrey
+4236
+4500
+5000
+2200
+4000
+5000
+5000
Tyreek HillT.Hill
+7742
+6000
+10000
+8000
+7500
+12000
+10000
Tua TagovailoaT.Tagovailoa
+10000
+10000
+10000
+20000
+10000
+12000
+12500
Jared GoffJ.Goff
+16711
N/A
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Joe FlaccoJ.Flacco
+20000
N/A
+20000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Myles GarrettM.Garrett
+20000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Matthew StaffordM.Stafford
+20000
N/A
+20000
N/A
+30000
+20000
+20000
Jalen HurtsJ.Hurts
+20000
+10000
+20000
+25000
+30000
+20000
+20000
Patrick MahomesP.Mahomes
+20000
N/A
+20000
+25000
+30000
+20000
+20000

Past NFL MVPs

MVP  Year
Patrick Mahomes 2022-23
Aaron Rodgers 2021-22
Aaron Rodgers 2020-21
Lamar Jackson 2019-20
Patrick Mahomes 2018-19
Tom Brady 2017-18
Matt Ryan 2016-17
Cam Newton 2015-16
Aaron Rodgers 2014-15
Peyton Manning 2013-14
Adrian Peterson 2012-13
Aaron Rodgers 2011-12
Tom Brady 2010-11
Peyton Manning 2009-10
Peyton Manning 2008-09
Tom Brady 2007-08
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006-07
Shaun Alexander 2005-06
Peyton Manning 2004-05
Peyton Manning 2003-04
Steve McNair 2003-04
Rich Gannon 2002-03
Kurt Warner 2001-02
Marshall Faulk 2000-01
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