2022 NFL Win Totals for All 32 Teams
The NFL win totals market has been pretty quiet in June as we settle down from a busy offseason, which included the schedule release, NFL Draft and a flurry of big moves at quarterback.
DraftKings made some big changes to its win totals after the schedule came out in mid-May, and there's been some modest action moving the juice on these win totals in the last few weeks.
The teams drawing over action:
- The Ravens are on the verge of moving from 9.5 wins to 10, as it'll cost you -150 to take over 9.5. The Steelers took some under money in a corresponding move, going from under 7.5 (-120) to -130.
- The Eagles moved all the way from 8.5 to 9.5, a significant change at this point in the offseason. Philly has the league's second-easiest schedule per our projections.
- The Commanders also got bumped up half a win, as they have the third-easiest schedule in the league. The NFC East gets the benefit of playing the AFC South and NFC North in its cross-divisional matchups. Someone like Commanders under 8 at +105, though, and bet it back to -110 on both sides. That juice movement is an indication of under money.
- The Jets haven't moved from 5.5 yet, but the juice on the over is skyrocketing, all the way up to -165, as bettors can't get enough of this team. At Caesars, there are 43% more bets on the Jets to hit the over than on any other team. At PointsBet, 87% of bets and 85% of handle is on the Jets going over 5.5 wins.
The teams that were downgraded after the schedule:
- The Titans fell from 9.5 to 9 wins following the NFL Draft and schedule release. They traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles, and have a middle-of-the-pack schedule.
- The Cardinals also dropped half a win from 9 to 8.5. Kyler Murray seems unhappy in Arizona and the Cards have one of the league's tougher schedules. Arizona did take some over money in the past week, moving from over 8.5 (+100) to over 8.5 (-105).
- The Panthers took some under money, though DraftKings hasn't moved off six wins for Carolina. The juice on the under moved from -110 to -125.
Of course, the schedule release wasn't the only reason lines moved. We'd seen flurries of movement during a busy NFL offseason that included two of the league's best receivers getting traded, some key quarterbacks switching teams an un-retiring, and plenty more.
The Browns are actually still off the board with Deshaun Watson's situation in flux, the Raiders opened at 8 wins after acquiring Davante Adams then jumped to 8.5, the Broncos made a big leap from last season with Russell Wilson under center and the Bucs are back at the top with Tom Brady returning.
NFL Win Totals Tracker
Lines via DraftKings, updated June 21.
Team by Team Breakdown
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5
The Bucs would have been middle of the pack in NFL win totals, but Tom Brady is back and they're the favorite once again in arguably the weakest division in football.
2. Buffalo Bills: 11.5
The Bills lost in devastating fashion to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round but are building for the long haul, with Josh Allen developing into one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.
3. Green Bay Packers: 11
Like the Chiefs, the Packers have gone over this number in three straight seasons with exactly 13 wins each year. Aaron Rodgers is back in the fold, but Davante Adams was traded to Las Vegas.
4. Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5
The Chiefs have gone over 11 wins in the last four seasons but will have to do it without Tyreek Hill in 2022 after he was traded to the Dolphins.
5. LA Rams: 10.5
The defending Super Bowl champs will be right in the mix again but will have their hands full in the division with the 49ers and Cardinals.
6. Dallas Cowboys: 10
The Cowboys had the most efficient offense in football last year and won the NFC East with relative ease, but faltered in the first round as a home favorite against the Niners.
7. San Francisco 49ers: 10
There's a changing of the guard in San Fransisco as Trey Lance will take over at quarterback. There's a strong roster around him -- one that was one quarter away from getting to the Super Bowl last season.
8. Denver Broncos: 10
The Broncos have been linked to Aaron Rodgers for a while but landed another star quarterback in Russell Wilson, and will try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. That's also the last time Denver won double-digit games.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: 10
The market is perhaps expecting a little bit of regression from the Super Bowl runner-up. Cincy won 10 games last season but the Ravens and Browns should be competitive in the AFC North.
10. LA Chargers: 10
The Chargers will be a darling in the betting market once again, but the AFC West will be one of the most competitive divisions in football.
11. Baltimore Ravens: 9.5
The Ravens were playing well last season before Lamar Jackson got hurt down the stretch, as well as the entire defense. They'll be a popular bet to rebound in 2022 and their win total is priced to buy.
12. Indianapolis Colts: 9.5
The Colts have a deep roster and just acquired Matt Ryan to replace Carson Wentz, who was shipped off to Washington. They're expected to compete with the Titans for the AFC South crown, as both teams are priced at 9.5 wins at DraftKings.
13. Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5
The Eagles were a surprise postseason team last year before getting blown out by the Bucs in the Wild Card Round. They did a lot of damage against bad teams but the division isn't expected to be all that strong again, minus the Cowboys.
14. Tennessee Titans: 9
The Titans continue to outplay the betting market's expectations but fall short when it matters most. They claimed the top seed in the AFC last season but lost to the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs.
15. Minnesota Vikings: 9
The Vikings have been quiet this offseason relative to most of their rivals. They resigned Kirk Cousins to a 1-year deal and replaced Mike Zimmer as head coach. Still, this win total has them pegged as the second best team in the NFC North.
16. Miami Dolphins: 9
The Dolphins added Tyreek Hill via trade and will hope to take the next step after a disappointing start and strong finish in 2021. Brian Flores is out as head coach, making way for Mike McDaniel, previously with the 49ers. It's a tough division with the Bills pegged as one of the best teams in the league and the Patriots priced the same as the Dolphins.
17. Arizona Cardinals: 8.5
The Cardinals haven't made any big splashes in free agency or the trade market but there's been plenty of drama in Arizona this offseason. Kyler Murray is reportedly unhappy with his situation and while he hasn't outright demanded a trade, it's not out of the question.
18. New England Patriots: 8.5
Things were looking up for the Pats in 2021 before a sluggish end to the season and a blowout loss to the Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round. Mac Jones showed some promise as a rookie but New England still lacks high-end talent at the skill positions.
19. Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5
The Raiders showed some serious poise through turmoil last season to make the postseason. They even hung tough with the Bengals in the first round. Now they've added Davante Adams in hopes of taking that next step, but the division is brutal. Derek Carr is probably a top 16 quarterback in the NFL but No. 4 in his division behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
20. New Orleans Saints: 8
The Saints seemed like a favorite for Deshaun Watson but he ultimately landed in Cleveland. Jameis Winston will be back under center for the Saints, who still have an excellent defense and some high-end talent at the offensive skill positions.
The Steelers have an incomplete quarterback room at the moment and might take one in the 2022 NFL Draft. Our Scott Smith has Pitt's Kenny Pickett projected to the Steelers at pick No. 20.
21. Washington Commanders: 8
Carson Wentz will be under center for Washington this season. The Commanders entered last year with some hype, but the vaunted defense fell apart and Taylor Heinicke did his best at quarterback.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5
23. New York Giants: 7
It's a little surprising to see the Giants at 7.5 after going just 4-13 last season -- this would require New York doubling its wins. Daniel Jones remains the quarterback, but Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the new head coach and there's new management in the front office.
24. Chicago Bears: 6.5
Bears fans are delighted that coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace are gone and the market is expecting Justin Fields to take a step forward this season with a win total at 7.
25. Detroit Lions: 6.5
The Lions finished with three wins last season but played a number of close contests. We'll see if they take a quarterback at No. 2 overall or punt the position until next year and roll out Jared Goff again.
26. Seattle Seahawks: 6
Seattle got Drew Lock back from Denver when it traded Russell Wilson, and seems content to "tank" in some way this season and take a top signal caller in the 2023 NFL Draft.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6
The Jags will look to take a small step forward with Doug Pederson as their new head coach. Trevor Lawrence showed some promise toward the end of last season and the division isn't overly competitive.
28. Carolina Panthers: 6
It felt like the Panthers would take a big leap in 2021, but the Sam Darnold experiment failed, so did the Cam Newton experiment, and it feels like Carolina is back to square one.
29. New York Jets: 5.5
There's a deep, dark sub-section of football Twitter that thinks Zach Wilson and the Jets will take a big step forward this season. But the betting market disagrees so far, with the Jets priced at just 5.5 wins.
30. Atlanta Falcons: 5
31. Houston Texans: 4.5
The Texans may roll out quarterback Davis Mills again and hope to land a star in next year's draft if that doesn't go well. It will be another rebuilding season in Houston.
Previous Season Win Totals
Win totals via SportsOddsHistory.com