Week 2 CFL Betting Trends: Keep an Eye on Early Season Underdogs

Week 2 CFL Betting Trends: Keep an Eye on Early Season Underdogs article feature image
Credit:

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray

Week 2 of the 2018 CFL season gets underway Thursday with the Ottawa Redblacks hosting the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The fun continues with a doubleheader on Friday night. In the first game, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers take on the Montreal Alouettes followed by the Edmonton Eskimos playing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

The week concludes with a Grey Cup rematch from last season between the Toronto Argonauts and Calgary Stampeders on Saturday night.

 

Looking for an edge to bet these games? Me too! Using Bet Labs, I’ve found a CFL system that has covered more than 60% against the spread since 2005 with matches for all four Week 2 games.

Since 2005, underdogs in the CFL are 500-425-17 (54.1%) ATS. In June and July, dogs have performed even better going 155-98-5 (61.3%) ATS. It is advantageous to bet teams getting points early in the season because oddsmakers know the least about each squad, and biases from the previous season — such as a franchise’s failure to reach the postseason — lead to soft lines.

Can it really be that simple? This system meets all the requirements we look for in a winning strategy. A large sample (more than 250 games), consistent results (only one losing ATS season in 13 years) and a theory that explains why it works.

Not sold? Ok, here are a few more nuggets for each game:

Saskatchewan Roughriders (+1.5) at Ottawa Redblacks 
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Saskatchewan opened as 3-point underdogs and have seen the line move 1.5 points in their direction. Since 2005, when the line moves toward the underdog early in the season these teams are 49-25 (66.2%) ATS.

Montreal Alouettes (+3) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Friday, 7 p.m. ET

The Alouettes lost their previous game 22-10. Teams coming off a loss that match this system are 73-41-2 (64.0%) ATS.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+6.5) at Edmonton Eskimos
Friday, 10 p.m. ET

The Tiger-Cats are the biggest dog on the slate in Week 2. Teams getting three or more points early in the season have gone 122-70-5 (63.5%) ATS.

Toronto Argonauts (+3.5) vs. Calgary Stampeders
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Toronto lost its previous game and is an underdog of three or more points. In this scenario teams have gone 57-30-3 (65.5%) ATS.