Freedman: Betting Trends for All 4 NFL Divisional Round Games
Rey Del Rio/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
Wild Card Weekend was fantastic, and the slate for the Divisional Round is especially promising.
Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for all four games this weekend.
Odds as of Sunday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Vikings +7 at 49ers
As good as the 49ers have been this year, underdogs against head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team are 11-4-1 against the spread throughout his time with the team, good for a 40.6% return on investment.
And in the entire history of the our Bet Labs database (since 2003), Divisional Round road underdogs are 36-24-1 ATS (16.3% ROI), perhaps because bettors have overvalued home-field advantage and the bye week for the favored teams.
On top of that, under head coach Mike Zimmer (since 2014), the Vikings have had all sorts of regular-season edges, one of which is their ability to confound teams unfamiliar with them. Against non-divisional opponents, Zimmer’s Vikings are an A-graded 44-19-1 ATS (35.4% ROI).
Titans +10 at Ravens
The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, but the Titans are no pushover. Since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter, they are 7-3-1 ATS (35.4% ROI).
Their splits with him are notable.
- Tannehill’s starts (11 games): 29.5 points scored, +5.6 point differential.
- Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, +1.0 point differential
Quarterback Lamar Jackson has been sensational for the Ravens, and it would be a true upset if he weren’t NFL MVP, but he’s by no means a guarantor of success.
Road underdogs are 8-3 ATS (40.6% ROI) against the Ravens in Jackson’s starts.
Chiefs-Texans Under 49
Outdoor postseason games have trended to the under with a record of 75-56-4 (10.9% ROI), and whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always bet the under anyway.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that historically hasn’t been the case.
Under head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have scored 2.9 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -7.6 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 24 with a mere 43.4 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with 51.0 points, the No. 2 mark in the league.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams.
In the Reid era, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 36-22-1 under record (including playoffs, 20.9% ROI).
Packers -4 vs. Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers has notable home/away splits.
- Home: 53-30-3 ATS | 24.1% ROI
- Away: 45-42-1 | 1.7% ROI
In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers have had a point differential of +8.4 at home but just 0.1 on the road. That home/away split of +8.5 points is easily the highest mark in the league.
At Lambeau Field, the Packers truly have a home-field advantage.
Matthew Freedman is 563-440-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
He’s the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.