Week 12 NFL Playoff Picture & Bracket: 49ers Maintain Control of NFC’s No. 1 Spot

Week 12 NFL Playoff Picture & Bracket: 49ers Maintain Control of NFC’s No. 1 Spot article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tevin Coleman

  • What's the NFL playoff picture look like after Week 12? We take a look at the AFC and NFC standings as of Sunday evening.

Sunday Night Football came with significant implications for the NFL playoff picture.

Thanks to their 37-8 win over the Green Bay Packers, the San Francisco 49ers maintain control of the top spot in the NFC. Our Bet Labs model — which simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times — now gives them a 49.46% chance of finishing the season as the No. 1 seed.

Now let’s take a quick look at the current AFC and NFC playoff pictures as of Sunday evening, along with other notable results and movement from today.

Week 12 NFL Playoff Picture & Standings

Standings current as of Sunday evening (including Packers-49ers).

AFC Playoff Picture & Standings

1. New England Patriots (10-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
3. Houston Texans (7-4)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (8-3)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

On the bubble:

7. Oakland Raiders (6-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

The Oakland Raiders had a chance to really contend for the AFC West ahead of their Week 13 date with the Kansas City Chiefs (who are on bye), but were blown out by the Jets, 34-3.

With the Pittsburgh Steelers’ (narrow) win over the Cincinnati Bengals, Mike Tomlin’s squad back unseats the Raiders as the AFC’s current 6-seed.

bengals vs steelers-betting odds-picks-monday night football-2019
David Butler II, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Tomlin

NFC Playoff Picture & Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-1)
2. New Orleans Saints (9-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

On the bubble:

7. Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
8. Chicago Bears (5-6)

The Green Bay Packers fall to 8-3, tying the Minnesota Vikings’ record. Aaron Rodgers and Co. maintain the lead in the NFC North, though, thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker win in Week 2.

The Dallas Cowboys lost narrowly lost to the New England Patriots, but Dak Prescott and Co. still maintain the lead in the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles did have a chance to potentially tie the Cowboys at 6-5, but lost to the Seattle Seahawks, who held onto position as the conference’s 5-seed.

The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, temporarily leapfrog the Green Bay Packers in the standings thanks to Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal — though a win for Aaron Rodgers and Co. would launch them back into position as the No. 2 seed thanks to owning a tiebreaker over the Saints.

Our Projected 2019 NFL Playoff Bracket

Below is how we’re projecting the end-of-season bracket as of Sunday morning — before the main slate games started.

We projected the top four seeds of each conference by ranking the most likely division winners by their chances to land the 1-4 seeds. Then we identified teams with the next-highest playoff odds, and assigned the subsequent standings based on highest average wins.

Go To: AFC | NFC

Projected Final AFC Standings

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.99%
  • Chance to win division: 99.42%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 78.17%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 96.88%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 27.91%

2. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.29%
  • Chance to win division: 97.51%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 19.76%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 80.27%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 14.27%

3. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 84.46%
  • Chance to win division: 66.34%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.43%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 6.22%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.66%

4. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 90.85%
  • Chance to win division: 86.98%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 1.19%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 13.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.16%
bills-vs-browns-betting-odds-picks-week 10-2019
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17).

5. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 73.43%
  • Chance to win division: 0.58%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.39%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.51%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.56%

6. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 41.63%
  • Chance to win division: 24.54%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.00%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.51%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.82%

7. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 37.86%
  • Chance to win division: 12.48%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.06%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.98%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.11%

8. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 31.87%
  • Chance to win division: 1.32%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.00%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.59%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.23%

Projected AFC Bracket

  • No. 6 Indianapolis Colts at No. 3 Houston Texans
  • No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs
  • Byes: New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens

Projected Final NFC Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 95.52%
  • Chance to win division: 69.03%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 37.15%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 57.95%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 13.25%

2. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 98.11%
  • Chance to win division: 97.28%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 31.98%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 59.06%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 15.96%

3. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 92.95%
  • Chance to win division: 68.36%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 16.40%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 41.39%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.28%

4. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.37%
  • Chance to win division: 68.69%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.02%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.64%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.12%

5. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 85.76%
  • Chance to win division: 31.44%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 6.79%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 20.15%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.80%

6. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 81.43%
  • Chance to win division: 27.66%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 6.94%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 18.16%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.49%

7. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 34.01%
  • Chance to win division: 3.31%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.67%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 1.91%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.87%

8. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 36.36%
  • Chance to win division: 31.30%
  • Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0.04%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.67%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.17%

Projected NFC Bracket

  • No. 6 Seattle Seahawks at No. 3 Green Bay Packers
  • No. 5 Minnesota Vikings at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys
  • Byes: San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints