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NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Texans-Colts, Eagles-Titans, Seahawks-Cardinals

Sep 30, 2018 1:25 PM EDT
  • Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at a pick 'em with an over/under of 47.
  • Sharps are also getting down on Philadelphia Eagles-Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET) and Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET).

In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.

They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.

Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force oddsmakers to move the lines.

By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL Week 4 game.

Here are the three games sharps are focusing on the most this Sunday.


>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

  • Sharp angle: Texans (moved from +2.5 to pick ’em)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

The Texans (0-3) have looked awful through three games. Meanwhile, the Colts (1-2) hung tough at Philadelphia last week, covering as 6.5-point underdogs. The public sees a short spread and believes there’s no way Andrew Luck doesn’t cover at home.

But wiseguys aren’t taking the bait.

This game opened at Indianapolis -2.5 at BookMaker, one of the sharpest offshore books. Although 60% of spread bets are laying the points with Indy, the line has dropped to a pick ’em (see live betting data here).

Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give Colts backers a better number?

No, they’re not being nice and handing out free points. Bookmakers moved the line because wiseguys hammered Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

  • Sharp angle: Titans (moved from +4 to +3.5)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

Average Joes love backing favorites and popular teams, especially when they’re the defending champions laying a short spread.

This game opened at Philadelphia -3. Sharps waited for heavy public betting to push the Eagles up to -4. That’s when they steamed the Titans at an inflated price (+4).

Steam refers to line movement caused by professionals placing multiple bets at different sportsbooks on the same side of a game, all at once.

This forces oddsmakers to move their lines to account for the sudden influx of money from respected bettors.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

  • Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +3.5 to +3)
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET

Recreational bettors see Russell Wilson going against a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start and expect an easy cover from Seattle.

But remember, sharps bet numbers, not teams, so they’re not scared off by the prospect of betting on Josh Rosen and the 0-3 Cardinals.

Despite receiving 65% of spread bets, the Seahawks have fallen from +3.5 to +3.

Because three points is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, grabbing this line at +3.5 was a savvy play made by sharps.

The Cardinals are only getting 35% of bets but 46% of dollars, another sign of smart money in their favor.

Credit:

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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