Freedman’s Favorite NHL Player Prop (May 7): Will Tyler Seguin Get His Shots on Goal?
Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyler Seguin
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
- On Tuesday, he looks at his No. 1 NHL player prop for Game 7 of the Stars-Blues series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite hockey prop for Game 7 of the Stars-Blues series (8 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
707-540-40, +97.39 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 350-267-7, +40.09 Units
- NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
- MLB: 44-52-12, -12.89 Units
- Golf: 9-8-2, +3.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-32-0, +30.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
Stars-Blues Player Prop: Tyler Seguin Shots on Goal
- Over: 3.5 (-130)
- Under: 3.5 (+100)
Full disclosure: I haven’t been sharp on hockey in 2019. Early in the year, I was so mediocre with my NHL prop bets that I’ve just ignored the market altogether for the past couple of months.
But I’m originally from the Dallas area, and the Stars are playing tonight in a Game 7, so you know I’m going to have some action down.
And I really like the Seguin under.
It’s something of a counterintuitive bet. Seguin is the center on the first forward line, and he’s maybe the most important player on the team.
Since joining the Stars in 2013, he’s averaged 3.88 shots on goal per game, and over the past two years, that number has increased to 4.08. Seguin is not shy about taking his shots, and in Round 1 of the playoffs he boasted an absurd 5.17 shots per game.
But in Round 2, the shots have been not nearly as frequent. For the series, Seguin has just 2.67 shots per game against the Blues, who in the regular season held opponents to an average of 28.60 shots, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
In Game 1, Seguin had five shots, but in every game since then he’s had no more than three.
Teams tend to play tighter in the typical Game 7, and refs swallow their whistles, which results in fewer power plays.
And I’m assuming all of that translates into fewer shots on goal. At a minimum, we usually see fewer goals.
Over the past 15 days, Seguin has just 3.29 shots per game (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models), and we have him projected for a comparable 3.2 shots on goal tonight. In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, the Seguin under has a bet quality of 10.
In fact, it’s the only player prop on the slate with a bet quality that high.
I don’t feel great about fading Seguin, especially since I’m rooting for the Stars, but I’d be willing to bet under 3.5 shots down to -125.
The Pick: Under 3.5 (+100)