Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Friday’s Premier League Matchup (May 14)

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Friday’s Premier League Matchup (May 14) article feature image
Credit:

Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Pep Guardiola/

  • Manchester City faces Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture on Friday afternoon.
  • The Cityzens have already wrapped up the league title, which raises one key question: How will Pep Guardiola fill out the lineup card for Friday's match?
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down his thoughts and explains what that means for bettors below.

Newcastle vs. Manchester City Odds

Newcastle Odds +950
Manchester City Odds -360
Draw +500
Over/Under 3 (-118 / -103)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Manchester City is set to celebrate its third Premier League title under Pep Guardiola Friday when they travel to Newcastle.

Newcastle has shown some life toward the end of the season after winning three of its previous five matches, including a shocking 4-2 victory on the road over third-place Leicester last Friday. However, Newcastle is once again going to be without star striker Callum Wilson after he scored two goals last weekend.

Newcastle has secured safety from relegation, so it really doesn’t have much to play for in this match other than pride.

Manchester City was crowned Premier League champions on Tuesday after Manchester United lost to Leicester at home. It was a well-deserved title for Guardiola’s side, which has clearly been the best team in the Premier League this season.

The question coming into this match centers around the team will Guardiola select. The Champions League final is two short weeks away, so does he risk the chance of some of his best players getting hurt, or will he give some of the second-team players a chance to take the field?

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Newcastle Could Struggle Without Wilson

The Magpies have shined the past few weeks, as they finally got some of their best attacking players healthy. However, it was short-lived because Wilson is going to miss the rest of the season due to injury.

The Newcastle striker has suffered a hamstring injury.#bbcfootball

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) May 11, 2021

It’s a real shame, too, because Wilson was in the middle of a fantastic season and really was the Magpies’ only goal-scoring threat. Wilson has been involved in 44.7% of Newcastle’s goals this season despite only appearing in 26 of its 35 matches. Wilson carries a 0.59 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate, so replacing his production up front against one of the best Premier League defenses is going to be a challenge.

While the offense is likely going to struggle, Newcastle’s defense has been dreadful all season. The Magpies rank 17th in the Premier League with an average of 1.62 xGA per match. However, they’ve been much better at St. James’ Park, allowing only 1.33 xG per match.

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Expect Man City To Give Second-Team Reps

What will be very interesting to see in this match is the type of lineup Manchester City goes with.

I don’t think we will see a lot of the starters since the Cityzens have already secured the title. Guardiola certainly wants to keep everyone fresh for the Champions League final against Chelsea in two weeks, so I expect to see a lot of the second-team getting a chance to play.

Whether it’s the regular starters or some of the backups in the lineup, let’s not get things twisted: Manchester City is an incredibly deep team and will still have loads more talent than Newcastle on the field. Over the past two months, the Cityzens are destroying their opponents in the Premier League, averaging 2.08 xGF per match while allowing only 0.96 xG per match.

What’s been most impressive about Manchester City this season has been its performance away from home. The Cityzens have won their last 11 away matches in the Premier League, outscoring opponents, 28-3, in the process. So, I have a hard time seeing how Newcastle is going to score on the Premier League’s best defense that’s allowing only 0.70 xG per match away from home.


Betting Analysis & Pick

I don’t think either side is going to put much stock into this match, which means we could be in for a low-scoring affair.

Newcastle’s offense is likely going to struggle without its main goal-scoring threat in Wilson, so I think there’s some value on under three goals at +102 odds (DraftKings).

Pick: Under 3 (+102)

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