Copa America 2024 Picks, Argentina – Canada, Uruguay – Colombia

Copa America 2024 Picks, Argentina – Canada, Uruguay – Colombia article feature image
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Jamie Squire/Getty. Pictured: Santiago Arias.

This midweek is packed with four international soccer matches, but my focus is here in the United States, where I pick my favorite Copa América 2024 prop bets.

The action kicks off on Tuesday when Argentina and Canada face each other for the second time in this tournament. It was a game with multiple chances, and I believe that can happen again.

Meanwhile, Uruguay and Colombia follow that match on Wednesday. The physicality is something that has been noted in this competition, which gives us value in the betting market.

We’re down to four nations and three more games. So, let’s dive into the Argentina – Canada and Uruguay – Colombia fixtures.

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Copa America 2024 Picks

Tuesday, July 9
8 p.m. ET
FS1
Argentina Odds-300
Canada Odds+900
Draw+400
Over / Under
2.5
+106 / -119
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In the first meeting in the group stage between Argentina and Canada, it finished with a 2-0 Argentina victory. However, the final score hides the poor showing by both defenses.

Canada allowed 3.02 expected goals and a whopping nine big chances to the World Cup champions, according to fotmob.com.

Meanwhile, the Canadians also were productive on the offensive end. They generated a pair of big chances and finished with over one xG.

This has also been an Argentine defense that has been known to give up a goal in recent knockout games. During the World Cup run, opponents found the back of the net in three of the four knockout fixtures.

If you go back to the last round, Ecuador were able to register 1.73 expected goals to go with three big chances.

The odds for this same bet closed at +110 in the opener. I just don’t believe the shift in odds is warranted, and I like both teams to get on the scoresheet here.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (+150)

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Wednesday, July 10
8 p.m. ET
FS1
Uruguay Odds+187
Colombia Odds+180
Draw+190
Over / Under
2.5
+162 / -200
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

One of the main talking points from Copa América so far has been the physicality in the games, especially for the ones including Uruguay.

Manager Marcelo Bielsa’s team has turned the matches against the United States and Brazil into backyard brawls at times. The media attention to this style of play has driven up the price in the prop market.

With that said, I like the match tackles to fall under 44.5 via bet365. I would play this down to -125.

If you start first with Uruguay, this same play would have cashed in 3-of-4 games in this tournament. The average tackles in those matches were 41.75.

Colombia’s fixtures in this competition have also struggled to top this number of tackles. In fact, this would have also been a winning bet in three games.

Another thing that stands out with this bet is when you compare this market to the tackle totals for both teams. Both Uruguay and Colombia’s team tackles are set at 22.5 juiced to the under.

If oddsmakers like both teams to go under their totals, it doesn’t align with the favorite in the combined market to bet the over. I’ll look to take advantage in my second Copa América Semifinals best bet.

Pick: Match Tackles U44.5 (-110 via bet365)

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