Semifinal Picks Euro 2024 | Spain vs France, England vs Netherlands

Semifinal Picks Euro 2024 | Spain vs France, England vs Netherlands article feature image
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Mike Hewitt/Getty. Pictured: Dani Olmo.

Midnight has struck for Cinderella, and as the Euro 2024 semifinals approach, it's the most familiar contenders who await us.

Since 2000, one of England, France or Spain have reached five of the last six European Championship finals. Spain are the one of only two nations to win the event three times, and France have two titles to their name and the Netherlands have one.

How will it shake out this time? Check out our Spain vs. France and England vs. Netherlands semifinal picks.

Make sure to check out our latest bet365 promo code to see if you qualify before making your soccer wagers.

Semifinal Picks: Euro 2024

Tuesday, July 9
3 p.m. ET
FOX
Spain Odds+175
France Odds+200
Draw+187
Over / Under
2.5
+200 / -167
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

France have been the tournament's elite defensive squad, but on closer inspection they might not be as good as their results indicate.

Despite holding Portugal scoreless and advancing on penalties following their quarterfinal draw, Didier Deschamps' rearguard began showing plenty of holes late on, even while the Portuguese adhered to the questionable strategy of leaving Cristiano Ronaldo on the field for the duration.

The other tests they've passed included a questionably disallowed goal in a loss to the Netherlands and a 1-0 round of 16 win over Belgium side that struggled all tournament to equal the sum of its parts.

Spain may have ridden their luck — and particularly a lack of VAR intervention — in their extra time victory over Germany, but they clearly have a more functional attacking identity. That's so important at this stage. And if they can get the first goal, France will have to prove they have a completely unproven Plan B.

On paper France should be better. In reality they should probably be steeper underdogs. Additionally, their defensive good fortune should run out.

I'll take Spain to at least score and the total to hit two or more goals at +120 and an implied 45.5% probability. If the prospect of banking on two goals spooks you, Spain on a draw no bet wager is a good alternative.

Pick: Double Chance – Spain or Draw and Over 1.5 (+120 via Fanatics)

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Wednesday, July 10
3 p.m. ET
FOX
England Odds+160
Netherlands Odds+220
Draw+180
Over / Under
2.5
+158 / -194
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Wednesday's semifinal is the public service announcement for the importance of your tournament draw.

Aside from the Netherlands' victory over a poor Romania side in the round of 16, neither of these sides have appeared to have much of a cohesive tactical identity. Yet they've both reached this stage in part because opposition with considerably less talent just couldn't punish that ambiguity.

The English have more elite personnel, while the Dutch have the advantage of not having had to play extra time in either of their previous games. And I'll level with you. I don't really have a sense of how this game may play out, in part because I'm not sure either team knows either.

But there's one wager I often think has value in these tight but somewhat ambiguous situations, which is a bet on both teams to score and the total landing under 3.5. At +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability, it has cashed in 50% of the games' involving these teams at the tournament and in both of England's matches in knockout play.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes and Under 3.5, Same-Game Parlay (+210 via BetMGM)

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