Download the App Image

Sean Koerner’s 2022-23 QB Ratings: How Valuable Every Quarterback Is to the Spread

Sean Koerner’s 2022-23 QB Ratings: How Valuable Every Quarterback Is to the Spread article feature image
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Tom Brady.

As we enter the 2022 preseason, I want to introduce our QB Ratings.

Our Predictive Analytics team created these to grade how much each NFL quarterback is worth against the point spread. It’s essentially a full list of how we value all 111 active QBs heading into the preseason.

When it comes to preseason betting, one of the best ways to get an edge is to find times where there is a significant mismatch between QBs. Of course, there are going to be other factors involved, such as if the entire first- or second-team offense will be on the field with that QB or many other factors, but I have found if you at least key in on the most important position, you can gain an edge. That’s especially the case when you have a pretty good idea as to when specific QBs will see their playing time.

That’s why I have created these QB tables for every upcoming pre-season game. Here is what they look like for the Hall of Fame Game:

The tables list each quarterback currently on the roster, their value against the spread, and how many projected snaps I’m estimating, along with a rough projection of when they will be in the game. The solid green color is when I think they will likely be in the game, with the shaded areas when I think the potential QB change will happen.

These tables are a visual representation of how I have processed my pregame and in-game decisions in the past in a much clearer form.

Based on these charts, you can see that the Raiders had a 2-2.5 point edge in the first half. Once we got to the fourth quarter, the Jaguars had a decent 2.5-point edge.

A very reasonable approach to the game (using these charts) would have been to back the Raiders in the first half and then come in on the Jaguars at the end of the third quarter. Sure enough, both plays would have cashed.Fantasy Football CTA for PRO

NFL Preseason Quarterback Matchups

This will be updated before every slate of preseason games.


Projected NFL Quarterback Ratings

Quarterback Team Rating
Patrick Mahomes KC 7.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 7
Tom Brady TB 7
Josh Allen BUF 6.5
Russell Wilson DEN 6.5
Justin Herbert LAC 6
Joe Burrow CIN 5.5
Deshaun Watson CLE 5
Matthew Stafford LAR 5
Lamar Jackson BAL 4.5
Dak Prescott DAL 4.5
Kyler Murray ARI 4
Derek Carr LV 4
Kirk Cousins MIN 3.5
Matt Ryan IND 3
Ryan Tannehill TEN 3
Mac Jones NE 2.5
Jalen Hurts PHI 2.5
Baker Mayfield CAR 2
Justin Fields CHI 2
Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2
Jimmy Garoppolo SF 2
Carson Wentz WAS 2
Jared Goff DET 1.5
Trevor Lawrence JAX 1.5
Jameis Winston NO 1.5
Davis Mills HOU 1
Daniel Jones NYG 1
Zach Wilson NYJ 1
Trey Lance SF 1
Marcus Mariota ATL 0.5
Sam Darnold CAR 0.5
Jacoby Brissett CLE 0.5
Teddy Bridgewater MIA 0.5
Andy Dalton NO 0
Gardner Minshew PHI 0
Mitchell Trubisky PIT 0
Geno Smith SEA 0
Tyler Huntley BAL -0.5
Case Keenum BUF -0.5
Nick Foles IND -0.5
Tyrod Tayor NYG -0.5
Drew Lock SEA -0.5
Taylor Heinicke WAS -0.5
Colt McCoy ARI -1
Desmond Ridder ATL -1
Cooper Rush DAL -1
Josh Johnson DEN -1
Jordan Love GB -1
Kyle Allen HOU -1
C.J. Beathard JAX -1
Chad Henne KC -1
Chase Daniel LAC -1
Brian Hoyer NE -1
Joe Flacco NYJ -1
Mike White NYJ -1
Mason Rudolph PIT -1
Matt Barkley BUF -1.5
Matt Corral CAR -1.5
Trevor Siemian CHI -1.5
Brandon Allen CIN -1.5
Jeff Driskel HOU -1.5
John Wolford LAR -1.5
Nick Mullens LV -1.5
Kellen Mond MIN -1.5
Nate Sudfeld SF -1.5
Ryan Griffin TB -1.5
Malik Willis TEN -1.5
Sam Howell WAS -1.5
Nathan Peterman CHI -2
Josh Rosen CLE -2
Ben DiNucci DAL -2
Brett Rypien DEN -2
David Blough DET -2
Sam Ehlinger IND -2
Bryce Perkins LAR -2
Jarrett Stidham LV -2
Sean Mannion MIN -2
Bailey Zappe NE -2
Carson Strong PHI -2
Reid Sinnett PHI -2
Blaine Gabbert TB -2
Kyle Trask TB -2
Logan Woodside TEN -2
Trace McSorley ARI -2.5
Brett Hundley BAL -2.5
Anthony Brown BAL -2.5
P.J. Walker CAR -2.5
Joshua Dobbs CLE -2.5
Will Grier DAL -2.5
Tim Boyle DET -2.5
Easton Stick LAC -2.5
Luis Perez LAR -2.5
Ian Book NO -2.5
Davis Webb NYG -2.5
Jacob Eason SEA -2.5
Brock Purdy SF -2.5
Feleipe Franks ATL -3
Shane Buechele KC -3
Danny Etling GB -3.5
Jake Luton JAX -3.5
Skylar Thompson MIA -3.5
Jake Browning CIN -4
Brandon Peters LAC -4
Chase Garbers LV -4
Cole Kelley WAS -4
Jack Coan IND -4.5
Dustin Crum KC -4.5
Chris Oladokun PIT -4.5
Jarrett Guarantano ARI -5
The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?