NFL Prop Bets: How To Bet James Conner’s 2020 Rushing Prop
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: Pittsburgh running back James Conner is tackled by Cleveland’s Greedy Williams.
NFL Prop Bets: Steelers RB James Conner
|Rushing Yards||777.5 (-110/-110) [BET NOW]|
The famous Le'Veon Bell holdout two years ago opened the door for James Conner to showcase his talents. Needless to say, the Pittsburgh running back has not disappointed.
Producing 5.2 yards per touch over the last two years matches the production Bell provided, but for a tiny fraction of the cost. The biggest threat to Conner’s production is health. He has missed nine games the last two years combined. With some health luck on his side, Conner will be looking to return to his dominating form prior to the unfortunate injuries.
Having a healthy Conner isn’t the only must for the Steelers. The loss of Ben Roethlisberger turned the Steelers from a Top 10 offense for five consecutive years into the 30th-ranked offense in the league.
Defenses were able to stack the box and limit Conner, along with the rest of the backs, from busting out big plays as they dared the Steelers throw. With Roethlisberger coming now healthy, combined with the receivers having a year of experience under their belts, the Steelers should be able to provide the passing threat that will make life much easier for the run game.
The defense was the part of the team that answered the call when all seemed lost last year. It ended the year ranked top five in both yards/points allowed and would be finish tops in the league in turnovers forced.
While turnovers can typically regress from year to year, this defense has playmakers all over it, specifically young studs like T.J. Watt, Devin Bush and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh will continue to do its part in maintaining leads, which should help Conner pad his rushing yardage totals at the end of games.
The running-back room became more crowded after the Steelers drafted Anthony Mcfarland Jr., who joins Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell looking to chip away at Conner’s workload. While more competition exists, the Steelers have stuck to relying on their starter for all they can handle. This should continue to fall Conner’s way.
The sportsbooks in PA seem to be in agreement on this line as DraftKings and Parx have the line at 775.5 rushing yards. Comparing that to our projections, which can be found as part of our PRO package, James Conner’s rushing total comes in at 856. This shows that there is some nice value to be had.
In situations with an injury prone player, here is a quick estimate to see if you have any full games of wiggle room for say an ankle that needs an extra week. Just take the projection minus the line (856 – 775 = 81) and compare that to the average projected rushing yards per game.
This is tricky, though, because you have to remember to use how many games this player is expected to play; not the standard 16 games. In this case, Conner has missed 4.5 games per year the last two seasons, so I would guess he likely misses four games.
Now, our average projection is 856/12 (71.3), so we can see the difference in projection and line (81) is a little more than one game worth (71.3). S,o we do have an extra game Conner could miss.
Take all the way up to 800 yards.
PICK: James Conner Over 777.5 Passing Yards (up to 800)