NFL Week 10 Main Slate Player Props: Bets on Davante Adams, Gio Bernard, More
Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.
Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 10 main slate:
Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams
The Pick: Under 89.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bet Quality: 8 out of 10
This under is not for the faint of heart. Adams has been a one-man wrecking crew recently, averaging 10 catches, 140.7 receiving yards and two touchdowns per game over his past three contests. He’s been a target monster in general dating back to last season, so there’s always risk in fading a player like this in DFS or the prop market.
That said, I think there is merit in doing both this week. The weather forecast for this contest looks dreadful, calling for 25+ MPH winds and possible rain or snow. Any time you get extreme weather, the passing offense should be expected to suffer.
Historically, unders have posted a record of 10-3 against the spread in games with winds of at least 25 miles per hour, and the under has covered by an average of 9.38 points in those contests. Low scoring doesn’t necessarily translate to low yardage outputs, but it makes sense to assume there’s at least some correlation.
The Jaguars have been abysmal in terms of pass coverage this season, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. However, they have fared slightly better against No. 1 WRs. Jacksonville ranks 19th in that department, so this tilt might not be as juicy for Adams as it is for some of his teammates.
Houston Texans WR Brandin Cooks
The Pick: Under 59.5 receiving yards (-125)
Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
The Texans are another team that will be playing in suboptimal passing conditions. The forecast in Cleveland projects 25 MPH winds at kickoff, with the gusty conditions expected to intensify as the game progresses.
With that in mind, I have no problem fading Cooks. He’s been much more involved for Houston recently, logging at least nine targets in each of his past four games. However, he’s still the type of player who relies on big plays to rack up yardage. If weather is a factor, it seems unlikely that Deshaun Watson will be airing it out deep in this matchup.
Miami Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant
The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-133)
Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
Grant is a player who should see a boost in value over the next few weeks. Preston Williams was place on the IR with a foot injury, so he’s out for at least the next three contests. Isaiah Ford was also shipped to New England prior to the trade deadline, which doesn’t leave Grant with much competition for playing time.
DeVante Parker will serve as the Dolphins’ No. 1 option, but Grant finished second at the position in snaps in their most recent game.
Unsurprisingly, the uptick in playing time led to a few additional opportunities. Parker logged five targets for just the second time this season, and his four catches were also tied for a season high. Parker should see even more playing time, so he has the potential to increase his performance even further.
The Chargers are a middling matchup for the Dolphins’ WRs — they rank 14th in pass defense DVOA — but Grant is expected to have a winnable matchup in the slot. He should see the majority of his snaps opposite Tevaughn Campbell, who owns a Pro Football Focus grade of just 53.5 this season.
New Orleans Saints WR Marquez Callaway
The Pick: Under 11.5 receiving yards
Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
Callaway had a brief stretch of relevance for the Saints, but it seems like those days are officially over. He played on just 23% of the Saints’ snaps last week, which ranked merely fourth among the Saints' wide receivers. Callaway was still able to snatch two passes in his limited playing time, but Drew Brees was content to spread the ball around in that contest.
New Orleans was comfortably in control in that matchup against Tampa Bay, so it seems likely that Brees will lean on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara more than he did in last week's victory.
Speaking of Thomas, he was limited to just 55% of the Saints offensive snaps last week, and that number will obviously increase moving forward. Tre’Quan Smith could lose some playing time to Thomas, but Callaway and Deonte Harris are also candidates to play a few less snaps.
In other words, this is the perfect time to sell high on Callaway while we can.
Cincinnati Bengals RB Gio Bernard
The Pick: Over 33.5 rushing yards
Bet Quality: 9 out of 10
Bernard is in a brutal spot this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been the fourth-best team in the league in terms of rush defense DVOA.
That said, this number just feels way too low. Bernard should operate as the Bengals’ primary running back once again with Joe Mixon out of the lineup. Bernard has received at least 13 carries in place of Mixon in each of the past two weeks. With that kind of volume, he doesn’t even need to average 3.0 yards per carry to potentially hit the over on his current rushing prop.
Bernard has racked up at least 39 rushing yards in each of the past two weeks, so he should be able to do it again. The only possible concern is that the Steelers turn this game into a blowout, but the Bengals are just seven-point underdogs in this matchup.
That isn’t ideal for a running back, but it's not disastrous either.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
