Friday Sharp Report: Pros Getting Down on Three Unders, Two Sides
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys are looking to bounce back today after swinging and missing on their two Thursday home dogs. There will be ups and downs throughout the year, but sharps embrace volume betting and keep grinding. They know that by sticking to plus-money dogs and avoiding big favorites, they only have to win 45% of the time to make money this baseball season.
After analyzing Friday’s 9-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, starting at 4:10, 7:05, 8:10 and 10:07 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:20 p.m. ET
Atlanta Braves – Colorado Rockies Under 9.5
4:10 p.m. ET
Taking an Under at Coors Field is always a scary proposition. But sharps are fearless. Total bets are split 50/50 but more than 75% of dollars are on the Under, a clear indication of smart money. After opening at 10.5, the total has fallen down to 9.5 (in a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move an inch if the bets are split). Wiseguys triggered four separate Steam Moves on the Under. And even though the total kept falling, they still kept hitting it, which signals supreme wiseguy confidence in the Under. A big reason is the weather. The forecast calls for snow and wind blowing in heavy from center.
Kansas City Royals – Cleveland Indians Under 7.5
4:10 p.m. ET
Another afternoon Under that the sharps are all over… get it, all over? I’ll show myself out. More than 60% of bets are on the Over, but the juice on the total has moved from 7.5 Over -117 to 7.5 Under -113, indicating reverse line movement liability on the Under. We noticed four bet signals on the Under, including three separate Pinnacle steam moves. This is notable considering that Pinnacle is one of the sharpest offshore books with the highest limits. The wind is swirling in at 20 mph.
Cincinnati Reds (-120) at Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET
We’ve seen some incredible line movement toward Cincinnati in this NL Central showdown. The Reds opened at +110 and have moved all the way to -120. We know it’s sharp money moving the line because Cincy is only getting 44% of bets (but 59%) dollars. Sharps at Pinnacle crushed Joey Votto and company at +109 and +102, which forced the entire market to move the Reds from the dog to the favorite.
Chicago Cubs – Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5
8:10 p.m. ET
Fridays are for Unders! Bets on this total are relatively split, but nearly 80% of dollars are on the Under. Wiseguys hammered the Under 9 at three different books: CRIS, ABC and Pinnacle. This heavy sharp action has caused the total to fall to 8.5. The Miller Park roof is closed, another benefit to sharp Under backers.
Oakland Athletics (+128) at Los Angels Angels
10:07 p.m. ET
Oakland is the top wiseguy moneyline play today. The Athletics are only getting 34% of bets but it accounts for 73% dollars. They’ve also fallen from +135 to +128 since opening, indicating smart money reverse line movement. Sharps got down hard on Oakland three separate times across the offshore market. What’s most interesting: pro players at 5Dimes doubled-down on Oakland even though the line got worse (+130 and then +120), a sign that they’re especially confident the road divisional dog can pull off the upset.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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Pictured: Oakland Athletics outfields Jake Smolinski (5), Stephen Piscotty (25) and right fielder Boog Powell (3) celebrate a recent win over the Texas Rangers