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MLB Projections

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Fri Jul 01
Odds Settings
SCHED.
PRO
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
GRADE
BEST ODDS
Your free PRO game of the day.
--
--
-1.5+115
+1.5+120
11:10 PM
-163
+163
F
B-
-155
+196
11:10 PM
o8.12
u8.12
D-
C
o8.5-105
u8+100
11:10 PM
Your free PRO game of the day.
--
--
+1.5-134
-1.5+130
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
+145
-145
C
D-
+165
-165
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
o8.3
u8.3
D+
D-
o8.5+100
u8+105
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
+1.5-145
-1.5+140
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
+145
-135
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
o7.5-105
u7.5-105
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
+1.5+105
-1.5+100
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
+200
-210
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
o9.5+100
u9+100
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
+100
-115
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
o12-108
u11.5+100
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
+1.5-135
-1.5+120
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
+160
-175
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
o7.5+100
u7.5-110
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
Sat 7/02, 2:15 AM
+132
-135
Sat 7/02, 2:15 AM
o7.5-110
u7+105
Sat 7/02, 2:15 AM
TOP 6TH: 1-2, 0 Out
+112
-127
TOP 6TH: 1-2, 0 Out
o9.5+100
u9+100
TOP 6TH: 1-2, 0 Out
BOT 5TH: 1-1, 0 Out
-139
+126
BOT 5TH: 1-1, 0 Out
o9.5-103
u9.5+100
BOT 5TH: 1-1, 0 Out
-1.5-162
+1.5+146
TOP 4TH: 2-2, 0 Out
-275
+235
TOP 4TH: 2-2, 0 Out
o10+100
u9.5+100
TOP 4TH: 2-2, 0 Out
TOP 2ND: 0-0, 2 Out
-200
+180
TOP 2ND: 0-0, 2 Out
o7.5-109
u7.5-104
TOP 2ND: 0-0, 2 Out
+1.5-120
-1.5+110
TOP 3RD: 1-2, 0 Out
+164
-180
TOP 3RD: 1-2, 0 Out
o9.5+100
u9.5-110
TOP 3RD: 1-2, 0 Out
-1.5+170
-1.5+170
TOP 2ND: 2-2, 2 Out
+102
-115
TOP 2ND: 2-2, 2 Out
o8.5-106
u8.5-105
TOP 2ND: 2-2, 2 Out
-1.5+118
+1.5-135
Final
-142
+130
Final
o8.5+100
u8+105
Final
+1.5-155
-1.5+140
Final
+133
-144
Final
o9+100
u8.5+105
Final
SCHEDULED OPEN PRO LINE
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
CONS. GRADE EDGE BEST ODDS BET % MONEY %
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
--
--
--
--
-1.5+115
+1.5+120
Right Arrow93%Right Arrow7%
88%12%
-220
+180
-163
+163
-230
+194
F
B-
-7.7%
+4%
-155
+196
Right Arrow82%Right Arrow18%
87%13%
o7.5
u7.5
o8.12
u8.12
o8.5
u8.5
D-
C
-4.4%
1.5%
o8.5-105
u8+100
Right Arrow69%Right Arrow31%
93%7%
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
--
--
--
--
+1.5-134
-1.5+130
Right Arrow24%Right Arrow76%
10%90%
+150
-175
+145
-145
+152
-183
C
D-
+1.2%
-5.6%
+165
-165
Right Arrow17%Right Arrow83%
53%47%
o7.5
u7.5
o8.3
u8.3
o8
u8
D+
D-
-1.8%
-4.4%
o8.5+100
u8+105
Right Arrow64%Right Arrow36%
22%78%
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
Angels
LAA
919
Astros
HOU
920
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-145
-1.5+140
Right Arrow14%Right Arrow86%
+130
-155
+141
-166
+145
-135
Right Arrow12%Right Arrow88%
o9
u9
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5-105
u7.5-105
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
Sat 7/02, 12:10 AM
Orioles
BAL
921
Twins
MIN
922
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5+105
-1.5+100
Right Arrow25%Right Arrow75%
+180
-220
+200
-242
+200
-210
Right Arrow23%Right Arrow77%
o7.5
u7.5
o9.5
u9.5
o9.5+100
u9+100
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
-1.5
+1.5
+1.5
-1.5
-1.5+160
-1.5+150
Right Arrow62%Right Arrow38%
-120
+100
+100
-119
+100
-115
Right Arrow28%Right Arrow72%
o11.5
u11.5
o11.5
u11.5
o12-108
u11.5+100
Right Arrow69%Right Arrow31%
Sat 7/02, 2:10 AM
Padres
SD
911
Dodgers
LAD
912
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-135
-1.5+120
Right Arrow18%Right Arrow82%
+120
-140
+150
-181
+160
-175
Right Arrow18%Right Arrow82%
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5+100
u7.5-110
Right Arrow51%Right Arrow49%
Sat 7/02, 2:15 AM
White Sox
CWS
929
Giants
SF
930
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-165
-1.5+148
Right Arrow25%Right Arrow75%
+115
-135
+130
-152
+132
-135
Right Arrow49%Right Arrow51%
o8
u8
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5-110
u7+105
Right Arrow59%Right Arrow41%
TOP 6TH: 1-2, 0 Out
Marlins
MIA
903
Nationals
WSH
904
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-170
-1.5+160
Right Arrow46%Right Arrow54%
-105
-115
+110
-131
+112
-127
Right Arrow45%Right Arrow55%
o10
u10
o9
u9
o9.5+100
u9+100
Right Arrow56%Right Arrow44%
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5+116
-1.5+235
Right Arrow71%Right Arrow29%
-150
+130
-145
+120
-139
+126
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
o9.5
u9.5
o9.5
u9.5
o9.5-103
u9.5+100
Right Arrow66%Right Arrow34%
TOP 4TH: 2-2, 0 Out
Braves
ATL
905
Reds
CIN
906
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5-162
+1.5+146
Right Arrow92%Right Arrow8%
-225
+190
-276
+227
-275
+235
Right Arrow93%Right Arrow7%
o9.5
u9.5
o10
u10
o10+100
u9.5+100
Right Arrow76%Right Arrow24%
TOP 2ND: 0-0, 2 Out
Brewers
MIL
907
Pirates
PIT
908
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5-117
+1.5+106
Right Arrow88%Right Arrow12%
-205
+175
-200
+170
-200
+180
Right Arrow88%Right Arrow12%
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5
u7.5
o7.5-109
u7.5-104
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
TOP 3RD: 1-2, 0 Out
Rangers
TEX
927
Mets
NYM
928
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-120
-1.5+110
Right Arrow9%Right Arrow91%
+140
-165
+155
-185
+164
-180
Right Arrow20%Right Arrow80%
o8
u8
o9.5
u9.5
o9.5+100
u9.5-110
Right Arrow73%Right Arrow27%
TOP 2ND: 2-2, 2 Out
Royals
KC
917
Tigers
DET
918
+1.5
-1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5+170
-1.5+170
Right Arrow17%Right Arrow83%
+106
-124
+100
-120
+102
-115
Right Arrow39%Right Arrow61%
o8
u8
o8.5
u8.5
o8.5-106
u8.5-105
Right Arrow55%Right Arrow45%
-1
+1
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5+118
+1.5-135
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
-139
+115
-148
+125
-142
+130
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
o9
u9
o8
u8
o8.5+100
u8+105
Right Arrow50%Right Arrow50%
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-155
-1.5+140
Right Arrow64%Right Arrow36%
+130
-155
+123
-147
+133
-144
Right Arrow42%Right Arrow58%
o9
u9
o9
u9
o9+100
u8.5+105
Right Arrow51%Right Arrow49%

A lot of factors are considered by expert MLB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out MLB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.

How MLB Projections Work

There are many ways to build MLB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, MLB handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.

At The Action Network, our MLB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.

We project the three big markets in MLB betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.

A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building MLB projections to be aware of news and injuries.

Run lines don't move much considering the close nature of final scores in baseball. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.

The Action Network's MLB Projections

Our MLB experts will provide consensus projections for every MLB game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.

The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.

Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but with baseball, spread numbers won't vary much no matter the book. The majority of baseball run-lines will be +/- 1.5 because of how close games can be.

If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on MLB: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the New York Yankees have a spread of -1.5 vs. the Miami Marlins. In that situation, a spread bet on the Yankees would cash if they won by a 2 runs or more. A bet on the Marlins at +1.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by 1 run.

When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays game has a total of 8 runs: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 7 or fewer runs; over bettors would win at 9 or more. An exact total of 8 would be a push and the bet would be voided.

In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our MLB projections say that team is to win.

It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Kansas City Royals are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Atlanta Braves, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Royals and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Braves, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are MLB projections?
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What MLB projections do The Action Network experts provide?
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