Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Junis, Wacha Go At It In Series Finale From Busch

Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Junis, Wacha Go At It In Series Finale From Busch article feature image

Royals pitcher Jakob Junis. Jay Biggerstaff, USA Today

Well, it took a little bit of scratching and clawing in last night’s Pirates-Reds Under 9.5 bet, but we managed to pull it off by the narrowest of margins. That’s another win streak that has reached three, so let’s just focus on extending it this afternoon.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 32-18-2, +11.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Reds Under 9.5, Taillon vs. Harvey (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | O/U: 8
1:15 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jakob Junis (5-3, 3.51 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.08 ERA)

Up to this point, you can’t argue that Junis hasn’t been impressive, recording a 5-3 record to go alongside his 3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .228 BAA.

Thus, Junis’ emergence doesn’t surprise me and I think he’s capable of even better. He’s improving on his vulnerability to the long ball that he exhibited earlier in the season, and an interleague assignment in a pitcher-friendly NL park should help him continuing in that direction.

Wacha has seemingly been going in the right direction ever since his lackluster Opening Day performance at Citi Field. Since that outing, the 26-year-old righty has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. He’s been especially dialed in as of late, having yielded no more than a pair of runs in each of his last six outings.

So, not only is this six-year veteran in a groove but we’ll also be getting him in his apparent comfort zone. Wacha has been better at home (3.50 ERA) compared to on the road (4.11 ERA) throughout his career (and those numbers don’t even reflect the stark difference in his playoff home-and-road splits), and that trend has especially rung true this year — he’s logged a 2.38 ERA in his six starts at Busch Stadium.

You can also ring in the fact that Kansas City’s offense has been inconsistent as of late, having plated three runs or fewer in seven of its last 10 ballgames. And remember, both lineups should be downgraded at least a little bit, with a day game-after-night game scenario.

Play: UNDER 8 (-120)