2019 World Series Projections: What Are the True Odds of an Astros’ Comeback?

Oct 24, 2019 01:01 PM EDT
Credit:

Thomas B. Shea, USA Today Sports.

The Houston Astros opened as a +700 (implied 12.5% win probability) World Series betting favorite following the conclusion of the 2018 World Series, moved down to +590 (implied 14.5%) by Opening Day, touched +200 (implied 33.3%) by the start of the playoffs, and dropped to -235 (implied 70.1%) before Game 1 of the World Series.

After the Nationals took Games 1 and 2 in Houston, the Astros series price has now flipped to +225 (implied 30.8%) to win four out of their next five games to capture the World Series.

What are their chances, and how can they carve out a path to a comeback?

Projected Pitching Matchups and Game 3

Here are the projected pitching matchups for the remainder of the series:

  • Game 3: Zack Greinke at Anibal Sanchez
  • Game 4: Astros’ Bullpen at Patrick Corbin
  • Game 5: Gerrit Cole at Max Scherzer (if necessary)
  • Game 6: Stephen Strasburg at Justin Verlander (if necessary)
  • Game 7: Anibal Sanchez at Zack Greinke

Down 2-0, I view the Astros fair odds to win this series at +270 (implied 27%).

Conversely, the Nationals should win this series 73% of the time (fair odds of -270) headed home with a two-game lead.


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Here are my projections for the exact series result, before Game 3:

The Path After Game 3

With a win in Game 3, the Astros would increase their World Series chances by 14% (up to 41%), but with a loss, they would harm their chances by 17% (down to 10%) on the brink of a sweep.

Either way, I have the Astros projected as a favorite in every game for the remainder of this series, at -124 (implied 55.5%) in Game 3, and -102 (50.6%) in Game 4.

Here’s how I view the series probability shifting, depending upon the outcome of each game:

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