2019 World Series Projections: What Are the True Odds of an Astros’ Comeback?
Thomas B. Shea, USA Today Sports.
The Houston Astros opened as a +700 (implied 12.5% win probability) World Series betting favorite following the conclusion of the 2018 World Series, moved down to +590 (implied 14.5%) by Opening Day, touched +200 (implied 33.3%) by the start of the playoffs, and dropped to -235 (implied 70.1%) before Game 1 of the World Series.
After the Nationals took Games 1 and 2 in Houston, the Astros series price has now flipped to +225 (implied 30.8%) to win four out of their next five games to capture the World Series.
What are their chances, and how can they carve out a path to a comeback?
Projected Pitching Matchups and Game 3
Here are the projected pitching matchups for the remainder of the series:
- Game 3: Zack Greinke at Anibal Sanchez
- Game 4: Astros’ Bullpen at Patrick Corbin
- Game 5: Gerrit Cole at Max Scherzer (if necessary)
- Game 6: Stephen Strasburg at Justin Verlander (if necessary)
- Game 7: Anibal Sanchez at Zack Greinke
Down 2-0, I view the Astros fair odds to win this series at +270 (implied 27%).
Conversely, the Nationals should win this series 73% of the time (fair odds of -270) headed home with a two-game lead.
Here are my projections for the exact series result, before Game 3:
The Path After Game 3
With a win in Game 3, the Astros would increase their World Series chances by 14% (up to 41%), but with a loss, they would harm their chances by 17% (down to 10%) on the brink of a sweep.
Either way, I have the Astros projected as a favorite in every game for the remainder of this series, at -124 (implied 55.5%) in Game 3, and -102 (50.6%) in Game 4.
Here’s how I view the series probability shifting, depending upon the outcome of each game: