Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Pitchers’ Duel Brewing in Cardinals-Diamondbacks?

Credit:

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Greinke

Yikes, we were cruising halfway through last night’s Twins-Brewers Under 8 bet until a very fluky Robbie Grossman two-out grand slam — the first of his career and only his fourth homer of the year in 210 at-bats — helped pushed the game over. Let’s just move on and attempt to get back in the ‘W’ column tonight.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 55-36-2, +15.15 units

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Brewers Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | O/U: 7.5

9:40 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jack Flaherty (3-3, 2.92 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (8-5, 3.41 ERA)

When Chase Field installed a humidor for the 2018 season, many figured scoring would go down considerably at the traditional hitter’s haven. And that’s exactly what’s happened, with a touch more than eight runs being scored on average for Diamondbacks home games.

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Predictably, this has served as a boon for certain starters on Arizona’s pitching staff, one being former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke, who has been churning out his best work at Chase Field since first joining the D-backs two years ago.

Greinke has always boasted a reputation for being a strong pitcher at home during his 15-year career — especially last year when he finished 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .209 BAA in home games — but thus far in the current campaign, he’s managed to even top that. Although he’s only 3-1 in eight starts in his home digs, Greinke holds a 2.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .204 BAA.

Will he keep that going tonight? Well, he couldn’t really be in more of a groove than he is right now, coming off consecutive scoreless outings that saw him tally 13 innings and 13 strikeouts — versus zero walks — without surrendering a single run. By comparison, in all 15 of his previous starts, Greinke had allowed at least one run. We’ll bank on his hot pitching to continue at least one more start.

The Cardinals’ rookie right-hander Jack Flaherty also had a similar run going recently up until his last trip to the mound, when the Indians got to him for earned four runs — including a pair of homers — in just four innings of work. Prior to that off night at the office, the 22-year-old had yielded only two earned runs total in his previous three starts, spanning 18.1 innings. In the process, he also recorded 26 strikeouts compared to just six walks within that span.

Quietly but steadily, Flaherty has really been that good this season, looking a lot more polished than when he first debuted a year ago and pitched in six games (five starts), en route to ending up with a 6.33 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. The Flaherty we’ve seen this year, however, has already exhibited numerous flashes of All-Star talent, hence why he possesses a 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, as opponents are hitting just .211 off the 2014 first-round draft pick.

But the most impressive takeaway about Flaherty might be his high strikeout totals, as he’s punched out a tremendous 10.65 K/9 through 11 starts. Considering he was averaging 11.65 K/9 in Triple-A earlier this year before receiving his call-up, Flaherty’s strikeout prowess should be considered no surprise, and with the D-backs ranking in the top-five in team strikeouts, he’ll be in a position to put up some more on Tuesday night.

Throw in the fact that Flaherty has been dominating on the road — only seven runs total allowed in his five away assignments, consisting of 28.2 innings and a .200 BAA — and a start at Chase Field might lead Flaherty to more prosperity in this one.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Follow me on Twitter @MattZylbert

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