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Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Chicago’s Carlos Rodon Stay Hot?

Credit:

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Rodon

Betting odds: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (7-9, 3.51 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (4-3, 2.69 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 82-54-3, +22.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Angels-Diamondbacks Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


If you haven’t been keeping tabs on Rodon, it’s time to start, as the third pick of the 2014 draft is finally starting to harness his notable talents.

Since coming off the disabled list to make his season debut in early June, the White Sox left-hander made 12 starts, and in nine of them, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer.

Along the way, opponents have mustered only a .185 batting average off the 25-year-old southpaw.

The bugaboo concerning Rodon throughout the years was always his command.

But Rodon has managed to get his walks down considerably, issuing 3.25 BB/9, the second-lowest mark of his career. (An unintended consequence is that increased control has led to a dip in his strikeout rate — 7.17 K/9.)

And as Rodon continues to trend up, we catch him with a favorable matchup on tap this afternoon.

The Twins strike out often with a lefty on the hill, fanning once every 3.8 at-bats. They have problems in the power department against southpaws, too, going yard just once every 43.4 at-bats.

That’s the second-worst mark in the American League.

This can also qualify as a favorable matchup for one of my favorite pitchers, Gibson, who has made it a habit of stifling the White Sox whenever he sees them.

In his career, Gibson has faced the White Sox 12 times, compiling a 6-3 record alongside a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

He’s been even stingier than that in at Chicago’s home park: 5-1 record with a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight starts at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Gibson appears to be firmly in his rhythm right now, having delivered four quality starts in his past five outings, including a pair of seven-inning efforts in his last two turns in the rotation.

Additionally, it looks like Mitch Garver will handle the catching duties today. Even though he’s an upgrade at the plate over dead-bat backup Bobby Wilson, Gibson has produced his best work with Garver behind the dish.

In seven starts this season pitching to Garver, Gibson has produced a 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Tangling with a lineup that he has had success against — and one notably missing its All-Star, Jose Abreu — I think Gibson can keep it going.

Both starters figure to be solid here and that will be the difference.

Play: UNDER 8.5 (-115)

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