MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/3: Back the Giants on the Road?
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Derek Holland (45).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 3 slate of baseball games with his model below.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
If you were watching baseball and felt a hint of déjà vu last night, you probably weren’t alone.
In Oakland, Ramón Laureano gunned down Xander Bogaerts on the basepaths for the second straight game, helping to preserve a 1-0 victory for the Athletics:
Chris Sale didn’t look right for his second straight start, sitting at just 91-92 MPH with the fastball (he averaged over 95 MPH from 2017-2018), and surrendering two walks and a home run while striking out one batter.
He hung a lot of breaking balls early and was fortunate to escape just having allowed one run.
It’s early in the season, but the AL East is turned on its head, with the Rays (5-1) and Orioles (4-1) sitting atop the struggling Yankees (2-3), and Red Sox (1-5).
Further indications that we are in the twilight zone? Zack Greinke pitched against Madison Bumgarner last night, with each homering (Greinke twice), while Greinke also struck out 10 batters.
Per Paul Casella of Major League Baseball, the last pitcher to accomplish the two home run, 10-plus strikeout feat in a game was Bumgarner, against the Diamondbacks in a game started by Greinke.
Want to get weirder? The day of that game was April 2, 2017 — exactly two years to the date. Baseball, you can’t make this stuff up.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
Model moneyline recommendations went 3-4 yesterday (including the Baltimore and Miami full game lines I didn’t play) but were well into plus-money with each of the three biggest underdogs (Baltimore, Detroit, and Oakland) winning.
Baltimore’s moneyline quickly moved away from me, before I was able to play it, for the second straight day.
The lines for Detroit (+210 to +200), Oakland (+160 to +156), and Cincinnati (+103 to -101) also moved in my favor, while those for Miami F5 (+114 to +120), and Kansas City (+120 to +136) moved in the wrong direction.
In defense of the Royals pick, I still feel like I was on the right side with a pure divisional contrarian spot play. Kansas City ultimately choked away three separate leads, but perhaps I should have waited longer to take a better number, and anticipated the public support for Jose Berrios.
The recommended game totals, neither of which I played, split 1-1.
On Deck for Wednesday 4/3
The model is showing six full game moneylines, and two full game total recommendations for Wednesday.
With Baltimore playing with its hair on fire, the group of usual suspects is currently down to just Detroit and Miami. The other teams joining them today are Atlanta, Kansas City, and Washington at home, with San Francisco on the road.
The two recommended full game totals are Over 7.5 in San Diego vs. Arizona; and Over 7 in Cleveland vs. the Chicago White Sox. I’m not playing either one today and will continue to monitor totals.
I locked in Atlanta (+104) as my favorite pick on Tuesday night in The Action Network App, and the line has already moved 10 cents in my direction. I’m feeling confident about our fourth time (2-1 so far) breaking out #FadetheCubs this season.
I will also definitely be on Washington (+130) against the Phillies. The public should be all over Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola after routing the Nationals on Tuesday (and with Trea Turner leaving with an injury last night), but the renewed Anibal Sanchez can keep the Nationals in this game.
Sanchez has had a resurgence over the past two seasons by changing his pitch mix, bumping his Cutter usage over 20% and changeup usage by 8%, at the expense of his two-seamer and slider:
Per Statcast’s batted ball data, Sanchez’s xwOBA (.274) isn’t far off from Phillies ace Aaron Nola (.263) suggesting that Sanchez and the Nationals might be underestimated in the betting marketplace tomorrow.
Those figures translate to a 3.12 ERA for Nola, and a 3.38 ERA for Sanchez.
My Bets & Potential Picks for April 3
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Atlanta (+104) Game ML; Play it down to -105 (Favorite Bet)
- Washington (+130) Game ML
As for the remaining games, I am still gauging a feel for the marketplace before Wednesday’s all-day, split-session schedule.
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/3: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.