Brewers vs Mets Pick, Prediction Today | MLB Odds for Thursday, March 28

Here's everything you need to know about Brewers vs Mets on Thursday, March 28 — including odds and a prediction.

The Milwaukee Brewers have fallen off of a cliff when it comes to where they stood in 2023. Brandon Woodruff is out for the season, and Corbin Burnes is now on the Baltimore Orioles. However, Brewers Opening Day starter Freddy Peralta was the next best in the rotation, and he is still among the best starting pitchers in the National League Central.

José Quintana and the New York Mets will be his opponents on Thursday. Quintana had a decent showing in 2023, but he only logged 75 2/3 innings pitched. 2022 was his bounce-back season, so his tenure with the Chicago Cubs will be long forgotten.

The Brewers in 2023 were strong against left-handers, and even without Devin Williams, this bullpen is lethal and should propel them to victory.

Find my Brewers vs. Mets pick and prediction for Opening Day below.

Peralta is about league average in terms of keeping the ball on the ground, so facing the likes of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor could become an issue. That said, Peralta is elite when it comes to strikeouts. In 2023, he ranked in the 92nd percentile in Strikeout Rate while striking out over 30% of hitters. He also had great command as he kept his Walk Rate slightly under 8%.

The top portion of this lineup is all Peralta needs to be cognizant of because the rest falls off quickly.

The Brewers slugged left-handed pitching from August 1, 2023 to the end of last season. As a unit, they held a 117 wRC+ with a sub-20% Strikeout Rate and .804 OPS. Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, Willy Adames and Sal Frelick are the hitters to watch in this lineup. Jackson Chourio in the lineup will help, as could Brice Turang.

This lineup is not necessarily going to blow any teams away, but they can string together enough baserunners against Quintana.

Luckily, the Brewers are always stacked in the bullpen. Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, Trevor Megill and Elvis Peguero all can throw gas and stave off baserunners. In addition, Peralta can pitch deep into games, especially if he can limit walks. This should allow him to hand the ball to one of the better Brewers relief pitchers.

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Like the Brewers bullpen, Quintana can toss the ball. He held a sub-3.00 ERA in over 160 innings in 2022 as his best attribute is limiting hard contact. Last season he held a sub-35% Hard Hit Rate and held an Average Exit Velocity under 88.5 MPH. However, he was the beneficiary of some good luck. His xERA was over 4.50, and he walked just under 19% of batters. He was never lethal with strikeouts, but this should give a boost to the Brew Crew.

At the dish, the Mets could get some bounce-back seasons from Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil. However, they did not add much power in the lineup, outside of J.D. Martinez. This team was about league average against righties from the beginning of August to the end of last season. This lineup could struggle against Peralta as he is a poor matchup.

Finally, the Mets' relief staff is better thank last year, especially with Edwin Díaz returning to the fold. Much like the Brewers, this team has some relief weapons in Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Jake Diekman and Jorge Lopez. However, Quintana should get knocked out earlier than Peralta, thus providing an edge to the Brewers.

This line undervalues the better starting pitcher and a comparable lineup as Milwaukee should continue to hammer lefties this season.

Quintana is not the caliber of pitcher Peralta is. Take the Brewers to steal game one, and bet them to -120 on the moneyline.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML +100 (Bet to -120)