Friday MLB Player Prop Picks: How To Bet Blake Snell & Zack Greinke (June 4)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell.
- A full slate of games in MLB brings plenty of chances for bettors to find value in the player-prop market.
- Two former Cy Young Award winners have value on their strikeout totals tonight, with the duo enjoying differing levels of success this season.
- Kevin Davis breaks down how bettors should target Zack Greinke and Blake Snell's strikeout totals on Friday night.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will also be adding my own personal grades.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 43-34, +3.59 Units, +4.6% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Zack Greinke: 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-155)
|Astros at Blue Jays||Blue Jays -125|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
In his 18th MLB season, Zack Greinke is still pitching at a high level.
Greinke enters Friday night’s game against an impressive Blue Jays lineup with a 5-2 record, 3.67 ERA and 4.02 xFIP. However, his strikeout rate of 6.96 per nine innings is his lowest since 2005. Even though Greinke is not striking out as many batters, you cannot automatically bet his strikeout unders because he is also averaging more than six innings per start.
There are two questions for Friday’s start: Will Greinke experience positive regression toward his old strikeout rate, and will he continue to average six innings per start?
If Greinke’s rates remain the same, he typically strikes out 4.53 batters if he lasts six innings. While Toronto has a good lineup this year, the Blue Jays are strikeout prone. They average 9.35 strikeouts per game or 5.5% more strikeouts per game than the median MLB team. Once you adjust Greinke’s strikeout total for the Blue Jays lineup, we’re at 4.78.
Greinke might not reach that six-inning start against a strong Blue Jays lineup. However, if he reverts to his 2020 strikeout rate of closer to nine per nine innings, Greinke should have 5.28 strikeouts tonight.
At plus money, it is hard to imagine a scenario where the over on Greinke is not a bet worth making.
Pick: Zach Greinke Over 4.5 Strikeouts +115 (play up to -110)
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 8
Blake Snell: 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+105)
|Mets at Padres||Padres -185|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Since arriving in San Diego, Blake Snell has a 5.55 ERA and is averaging fewer than 4 1/3 innings per start. However, he has a strikeout rate of 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Snell will start on Friday night against the Mets, whose lineup averages only 8.54 strikeouts per game. That’s better than the average MLB team, which is at 8.86.
Regardless of the Mets’ solid strikeout numbers, the key for any Snell strikeout total is how deep he can pitch into a game. In a typical Snell start this season, he strikes out 6.45 batters. His adjusted total against the Mets lineup is 6.23.
At +105, I am betting on Snell to have under 6.5 strikeouts, and I would bet it up to -115.
Pick: Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts +105 (play up to -115)
- Action Labs Score: 7
- Kevin Davis Score: 5