Lo Duca: Why I’m Taking On Seth Lugo’s Sinker At Coors Field

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

• Mets (Seth Lugo): -103
• Rockies (Chad Bettis): -107
• Over/Under: 11.5

Bet to Watch

Since I joined The Action Network, people have asked why I play so many MLB totals. Just like in any other sport, bookmakers will shade the odds toward the public, which means the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox and Astros will get more tickets, while the awful teams — the Marlins, Reds and Royals — will get faded.

When it comes to totals, books can't move the line as much. That makes the lines less deceiving, and gives you a better indication of how these games will likely play out. Of course, the books will sway toward dominant pitchers on good teams (think Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Luis Severino). So, to me, the line movement on over/unders is way more telling than it is for the game itself. Plus, most people are playing sides and not totals.

Moving on to today's Action, my play for the Mets-Rockies game is over 11.5. The Mets' bats have finally come to life, and it took the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field to make it happen. They take on Chad Bettis, who has come undone after a good start to the year. The 29-year-old right-hander has allowed 15 runs in his past 15.1 innings.

Bettis' recent form is in stark contrast to that of New York's Seth Lugo. However, Coors Field is the worst ballpark for a sinkerball. Lugo has thrown his sinker 26.1% of the time this year, and that is not a recipe for success in Colorado, as the thin air flattens the ball out. Even so, Lugo has done well against the Rockies' hitters — although the sample size is small — so far in his career. The thing to note is, this will be his first start against Colorado, and that's a huge difference. Facing this lineup a second and third time is a tall task for Lugo.

Vegas had not listed a Mets total near double digits, but Coors Field has changed all of that. Tuesday night's total was 11.5, and it was a boggy night (and the game still went over the total in the fifth inning). Tonight is supposed to be beautiful, and the ball will be jumping.

Jump on the over now.

The pick: Over 11.5