Astros-Blue Jays Betting Preview: Sharp Play on Over/Under

Astros-Blue Jays Betting Preview: Sharp Play on Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, 8:10 p.m. ET 

  • Astros (Charlie Morton): -270
  • Jays (Ryan Borucki): +220
  • Over/under: 8

Bet to Watch

Toronto beat Houston, 6-3, on Monday. The nine runs scored easily went over the total of 7. The 63% of bettors who cashed yesterday’s over are back for more Tuesday and they brought some friends.

 

More than 80% of tickets bet are on the Astros-Jays over despite the line increasing from 7 to 8 runs. The public expects runs to be scored, but is betting the over a sharp play?

Bet Signals

You’d expect with lopsided action on the over that the line would increase or at the very least stay the same but it hasn’t. The total started at 8.5 and has moved down to 8. What is causing the line movement? Pros, duh!

Reverse line movement and steam move bet signals (both indicators of sharp money) were triggered on the under 8.5. A smart bettor would be intrigued by this sharps vs. squares split, but is there still value in the under now that the line has moved?

Supporting Data

Using Bet Labs, we find that the under has been profitable when there is reverse line movement. Since 2005, the under is 761-711-65 (52%) when the line decreases by 0.5 a run or more and 30% or fewer of tickets are on the under.

It is most profitable to bet against the public when a game receives heavy action. If a game matching the above system is receiving at least the daily average of number of bets, the under is 356-267-31 (57%).

This system improves further if the previous game in the series went over, like it did for Astros-Jays. In this scenario, the under is 127-76-7 (63%) since 2005.

Casual bettors are back after cashing last night’s over, but sharp players are on the under.